Photo courtesy of sajithpremdasa

The Institute for Health Policy’s (IHP) Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) MRP provisional estimates of presidential election voting intent in April 2024 show support for NPP/JVP leader A.K. Dissanayake dropped to 39% levelling with SJB leader Sajith Premadasa. Support for President Ranil Wickremesinghe increased to 13% while a generic SLPP candidate trailed at 9%.

The estimates use the IHP SLOTS Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model. The update is for all adults and uses data from 17,134 interviews conducted from October 2021 to 19 May 2024 including 444 interviews during April 2024.

IHP’s SLOTS MRP methodology first estimates the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about respondents and their opinions, in this case, “If there was a Presidential Election today, who would you vote for?” in a multilevel statistical model that also smooths month to month changes.

SLOTS combines interviews from a national sample of adults (ages 18 and over) reached by random digit dialling of mobile numbers, and others coming from a national panel of respondents who were previously recruited through random selection.

The April 2024 MRP estimates are based on 17,134 interviews conducted from 1 October 2021–19 May 2024, including 444 interviews conducted in April 2024. All estimates are adjusted to ensure the sample matches the national population with respect to age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, education, geographical location and voting in the 2019 presidential and 2020 general elections.