Photo courtesy of The Economist

Institute for Health Policy’s (IHP) Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) MRP provisional estimates of presidential election voting intent in May 2024 show support for NPP/JVP leader AK Dissanayake at 39% (-2) and SJB leader Sajith Premadasa at 38% (unchanged compared to April). Support for President Ranil Wickremesinghe increased to 15% (+3) while support for a generic SLPP candidate was 7% (-2).

These estimates use the IHP SLOTS Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model. This update is for all adults and uses data from 17,751 interviews conducted from October 2021 to June 2024, including 503 interviews in May 2024. Margins of error are assessed as 1-4% for May.

IHP’s SLOTS MRP methodology first estimates the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about respondents and their opinions, in this case, “If there was a presidential election today, who would you vote for?” in a multilevel statistical model that also smooths month to month changes.

SLOTS combines interviews from a national sample of adults (ages 18 and over) reached by random digit dialling of mobile numbers, and others coming from a national panel of respondents who were previously recruited through random selection.

The May 2024 MRP estimates are based on 17,751 interviews conducted from 1 October 2021-24 June 2024, including 503 interviews conducted in May 2024. All estimates are adjusted to ensure the sample matches the national population with respect to age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, education, geographical location and voting in the 2019 presidential and 2020 general elections.