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The Institute for Health Policy’s (IHP) Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) MRP provisional estimates of presidential election voting intent in January 2024 show NPP/JVP leader A.K. Dissanayake with the support of 50% of all adults (-1 since previous month) followed by the SJB leader Sajith Premadasa on 36% (+2) and both President Ranil Wickremesinghe and a generic SLPP candidate on 7%.

These estimates are based on the January 2024 revision of the IHP SLOTS Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model, which smoothed monthly changes and reduced monthly fluctuations due to sampling noise. This update is for all adults and is based on a revised MRP model using data from 15,590 interviews conducted from October 2021 to 26 February 2024, with 506 interviews during January 2024. Margins of error are assessed as 1-3% for January.

SLOTS combines interviews from a national sample of adults (ages 18 and over) reached by random digit dialling of mobile numbers, and others coming from a national panel of respondents who were previously recruited through random selection. IHP estimates voting intent using an adaptation of Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification (MRP), with multiple imputation to account for uncertainties in its modelling, exploiting data from all SLOTS interviews to estimate voting in a particular month.

The January 2024 MRP estimates are based on 506 interviews conducted in January 2024, and 15,590 interviews conducted overall from 1 October 2021-26 February 2024, with a margin of error assessed as 2.5–3.0% for AK Dissanayake, Sajith Premadasa and 0.5–1.5% for Ranil Wickremesinghe and the other potential candidate. All estimates are adjusted to ensure the sample matches the national population with respect to age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, education, geographical location and voting in the 2019 presidential and 2020 general elections.