Photo courtesy of AFP
Writing in March after studying 2,000 comments against President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s (AKD’s) consequential budget speech, I observed there was “a growing public sentiment (bordering on embryonic disenchantment) around the government’s inability to deliver what it promised” and that “while unwavering support for AKD and the NPP persists, the public discourse (as studied on Facebook) evolves from emotional affirmation to a more nuanced (critical even?) assessment of governance, policy, and the delivery of tangible results.” I went on to note that a “…shift from broad economic aspirations to concrete policy discussions indicates a maturing public understanding of the complexities of economic governance, and a growing expectation for the government to deliver on its economic promises”.
The local government elections were a litmus test of the government’s popularity and saw AKD himself, the PM and other leading figures from the government campaign heavily, including by breaking election laws. This attests to the importance the government itself placed on the local government elections as their scaffolding to create a political architecture from sub-national through to national levels that secures their political vision’s realisation. The study of comments against the press conference after the election results were announced helps locate public sentiment around this political objective in the context of the electoral results.
Against the backdrop of a voter turnout around 60 percent, one of the lowest in Sri Lanka’s elections, the NPP experienced a notable decline in its vote share from the general election held just six months ago. In November 2024’s General Election, where 11,148,006 votes were counted, the NPP secured a commanding 61.6% of the votes. However, in this week’s electoral test, with 10,410,808 votes counted, their share had fallen to 43.3% (or a difference of 2,359,256 votes). This is a significant drop of 18.3 percentage points indicating a considerable shift in voter preference or turnout dynamics between the two electoral contests.
Tellingly, the SLPP’s support grew from 4.5% in 2024’s general election to 9.2% in this week’s local government election, an increase of 4.7 percentage points. This translated into a substantial rise in their absolute vote count, which climbed from 506,835 votes in 2024 to 954,517 votes, which is in absolute numbers an uplift of 447,682 votes. Furthermore, based on the Verité Research/Manthri.lk comparison which projected parliamentary seats based on the local government election outcomes, the SLPP’s potential representation would have increased from three seats in 2024 to a projected 22 seats, indicating a significant potential gain of 19 seats. Collectively, these figures illustrate a notable resurgence for the SLPP, showcasing an electoral position between the two elections that’s considerably improved, the reasons for which may lie in in the sentiments around AKD and the NPP captured in this study.
The numbers and infographics were taken from Manthri.lk‘s LG Election Tracker.
Video of NPP press conference studied
Newsfirst posted the video of the NPP press conference to YouTube and Facebook. At the time of writing, the YouTube video featured 293 comments and the Facebook video had generated 1,500 comments. They were studied collectively.
Against the YouTube video, the comment generating the most likes was “We’ve now trusted you again. Now deliver on the promises made quickly. Victory to the country”.
In the main, comments feature predominant themes including the support for and celebration of NPP’s electoral majority mixedwith disappointment, fairly rigorous electoral analysis, strong anti-corruption sentiment and many calls for action over words, in addition to discussions about coalition politics and governance. Both supporters and critics express a desire for meaningful change rather than just political rhetoric, suggesting the NPP’s success in maintaining popular support will depend on demonstrating tangible improvements in governance and anti-corruption efforts.
Unsurprisingly, many express enthusiastic support for the NPP and celebrate their electoral victory. For example, “Once again we trusted you. Now fulfil your promises quickly. Victory to the country.” Others express a deep emotional connection to the movement’s leadership. Comments like “We love you, Brother Tilvin” and “Beloved big brother, this is a historic victory” reflect a very strong parasocial relationships with AKD and the NPP’s leadership. Some frame the victory as a triumph against corruption with comments like “Thanks to the people who united to defeat the thieves.”
Many also express gratitude and optimism for the future: “Victory to the Malima government. Need to work like never before to build the country starting from the village.”
Despite the celebratory comments, a significant number also display disappointment, mockery or criticism of the party’s performance. Many commenters express that the victory fell short of expectations: “Where is the 70%?” “Tintin Silva is a waste who has betrayed the leftist movement. I don’t want to see him in the media again.”
Others suggest the party leadership is being dishonest about the nature of their performance: “Enough of the lies now. The election is over. Do some work now. Otherwise, don’t say next time that you can’t work without winning the cooperative election too.”
Critics also mock what they perceive as a gap between the party’s rhetoric and reality: “Where is today’s momentum from yesterday?”
Many comments, which were almost exclusively in Sinhala across both YouTube and Facebook, provide insightful analysis of the local government electoral outcomes, noting that support for the NPP has declined since earlier elections: “Votes are greatly reduced. Those votes belonged to Malimawa. Why did this happen? It’s worth investigating carefully.”
Some commenters provide specific statistics and comparisons. “For the first time in history, the party that has lost the highest percentage of votes within 7 months of taking power. No need for excuses.” “In Hambantota where they had 70% in the general election, it has fallen to 38%, Malima friends.”
Others attempted to explain the reasons for this decline: “The reason for the decline is that many people didn’t use their vote. Due to holiday issues. If it had been after the New Year or after Poya day, there could have been more of a difference.”
A central theme throughout all the comments studied is the expectation that the NPP will act against corruption. Many commenters see this as the primary mandate of the movement: “Big brother, may the Triple Gem bless you. Now fulfil the promises made to us. Catch the thieves properly. Bring the gallows… send the wrongdoers [to justice]… Then the country will develop automatically.”
Some express frustration that promised anti-corruption measures haven’t materialised: “It’s possible according to the local government act.” “Change the Attorney General and catch those thieves and put them in prison, don’t pamper them.”
This anti-corruption sentiment is often tied to economic issues with comments suggesting that corrupt officials have stolen public resources that should benefit citizens.
A dominant sentiment across both supporters and critics is frustration with perceived excessive talk and insufficient action. This theme appears consistently across the political spectrum, suggesting widespread voter fatigue with political rhetoric that doesn’t translate into tangible improvements. “Now brother, show us some work… We trusted you without you having done any work, now show us by doing some work or you can’t win again.” “At least now stop lying and do some work. Otherwise, you’ll lose another 20% in the next 6 months.”
Many comments discuss the implications of the election results for forming local councils and governance structures. The electoral system appears to involve both direct representation and proportional elements, leading to complex coalition building scenarios: “The losers are still boasting as before. Now for years to come it will be boasting and farting. It would be better if they mind their own business. Now get lost.”
Some worry about potential alliances with parties previously criticised as corrupt: “It wouldn’t be surprising if they form councils by joining with Pohottuwa members.” Others point out the strategic dilemma faced by Malimawa when they lack outright majorities: “Opposition establishes power.. The baby is born in six months..”
Several comments offer insights into why people voted as they did or why turnout appeared low: “A section of this country’s people prefer to live on commissions, bribes and underhand dealings, so some people are very fond of building a democratic country where everyone is equal and happy, many people like to enjoy maximum happiness only for themselves and their friends by being elected by the people of the country, and only those who have felt the suffering experienced so far have made intelligent decisions.”
Others looked at the local government patterns in terms of social relationships: “There’s no problem with incorporating parties from the Northern Province into the government. Because people who speak and understand that language in that province need to work in those local councils.” “In this election, people have given their vote to their friend in the village. That’s why there’s a change in votes.”
Many referred to economic hardships facing ordinary citizens: “We want a good country; people were oppressed due to the power of Ranils and Rajapaksas.”
Comments about specific economic issues include concerns about prices, taxes and material conditions: “Whatever happens, don’t tax us and feed people for free. We also earn money by suffering a lot.” “The salt packet that was 100 has become 300…whose pocket is this profit going to?”
Several comments focus on the need for institutional reform and legislative changes. The desire for systemic changes rather than just personnel changes can be read as the enduring desire to see the aragalaya’s clarion call for, and the NPP’s embrace of the “system change” promise realised quicker and more fully. “This local government electoral system is distorted and should be changed immediately.” “At least now let’s pass the bills without boasting and start working.”
Perceptions of AKD and the NPP government
The comments on YouTube and Facebook against the NPP’s press conference reveal, in the main, a large constituency still hopeful about the potential for change but – entirely tracking with the sentiment studied after the President’s budget speech in parliament two months ago – growing increasingly impatient for tangible results. The initial euphoria of electoral victory appears to be rapdily giving way to the realities (and complexities) of governance with supporters urging the NPP and AKD to move from rhetoric to action, particularly on anti-corruption measures and economic improvements that benefit ordinary citizens. The overall sentiment suggests that while the NPP and AKD still enjoy significant support, they are at a critical juncture where delivering visible results will be essential to maintaining public confidence.
Many commenters explicitly warn that if the government continues prioritising talk over action, they could lose another 20% support within six months, potentially destroying their electoral viability. The perceived arrogance of regional NPP leaders receives particular criticism with warnings that this disconnect from ordinary citizens is rapidly eroding grassroots support. Economic concerns feature prominently in these cautions with rising prices of essential goods (like salt packets reportedly tripling in price) threatening to overshadow any governance achievements. Commenters also warn against potential political compromises, suggesting that any alliances with previously criticised corrupt politicians or parties would be viewed as a fundamental betrayal of core principles.
Perhaps most concerning for AKD personally are clear warnings in the comments studied that despite maintaining stronger personal popularity than his government overall, his perceived hesitation to aggressively pursue high profile corruption cases and fully utilise his executive powers is beginning to disappoint even staunch supporters who still affectionately refer to him as big brother but increasingly question whether he possesses the necessary resolve to deliver the transformation he promised.
Perceptions of NPP
The NPP government appears to be experiencing what many commenters describe as a “honeymoon period ending” phenomenon.Supporters remain loyal but express increasing impatience: “Now fulfil the promises made to us.” Many still believe in the movement’s potential to transform Sri Lanka, framing the NPP as the only political force capable of genuine change after decades of corruption under previous regimes.
Critics point to what they perceive as a gap between rhetoric and action. As also noted above, comments like “Please stop lying and get to work now” reveal clear frustration with perceived highfalutin talk against insufficient visible or tangible progress. This sentiment appears frequently, suggesting a widespread perception that the government has not moved quickly enough on its core presidential and general election campaign promises from late 2024.
A significant criticism focuses on the NPP’s approach to governance and the behaviour of its regional leaders. Comments like “People are disappointed due to the arrogance of regional leaders and the neglect of voters” suggest that the party’s grassroots engagement has deteriorated since taking power.
Economic concerns also feature prominently in the assessments. Some point to price increases, particularly of essential goods, questioning what tangible benefits ordinary citizens have seen since the change in government.
Perceptions of AKD as president
The President appears to maintain stronger personal popularity than his government as a whole. Comments refer to him affectionately as brother Anura Kumara and big brother, suggesting a personal connection many voters feel with him. And yet, there are high expectations specifically for AKD to deliver on anti-corruption promises. Many commenters urge him to use his executive powers more decisively: “Tell our President not to eliminate his executive power, but to use his executive power and two-thirds majority to establish this law”. Some note that AKD has been hesitant to move against corruption as boldly as promised during the campaign. Comments like catch “Arjuna Aloysius” indicate specific expectations about prosecuting high-profile corruption cases that allegedly have not been pursued vigorously enough. However, many commenters still express faith in AKD’s personal integrity and vision. Comments like “May victory be to President Anura Kumara Dissanayake” throughout the whole country indicate that for many supporters, he remains the embodiment of hope for meaningful change in Sri Lanka.
Writing in February, Tisaranee Gunasekara presciently noted, “But the NPP/JVP government might not be able to keep disillusionment at bay for long, given its debilitating inexperience and comic ineptitude”. The progression of public sentiment studied against the President’s budget speech in March to the comments on the NPP’s press conference after the local government election realises what Gunasekara warned against, and quicker than some would have expected.
With the budget, followed by the local government election used as excuses in the first quarter of this year for the lack of progress around promises made, and inability to focus on substantive issues, it remains to be seen what the NPP and AKD will do now to address concerns, challenges and criticism they will downplay in public but would through their internal party feedback loops, be keenly aware of.
This article was first published on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/end-honeymoon-sentiments-npp-akd-after-local-election-sanjana-cgmnc/