This story could be penned from many entry points. That would not make it any different, I guess. It would thus be good, or not bad, to start from the presidential elections of November, 2005, says my hindsight.
Just as a reminder and a link to what follows, at that presidential elections, Mahinda Rajapaksa was brought forward as the SLFP candidate of the UPFA. He was mobbed and rallied around by the JHU, the JVP and their “cuddly tweeties”, that made Rajapaksa a solidly designed, Sinhala – Buddhist candidate. Carried through on a platform for a “Unitary State” and one “against Devolution”, his baptism as a loud, Sinhala – Buddhist exemplar in the elections, could not be toned down by the few senior citizens in the “Left” who tagged along. If State power was what could be achieved, Mangala was there on the wings.
All of it made Rajapaksa’s election platform the most sordidly racist election platform ever, since independence. I was thus convinced, if on this platform, Rajapaksa wins the elections (in 2005), their answer to the ethnic conflict would be plain and ruthless war that would invariably demolish democracy in the whole country, paving the way for a squalid and corrupt regime and that regime would never hold itself responsible to the people. This political assumption was made public and I openly said I would therefore not dare vote Rajapaksa for presidency.
Such political projection of the Rajapaksa candidacy and its alliance, obviously angered the JHU and the JVP, who labelled all who took similar positions as “Tiger informants, Sinhala Tigers” and then as “Traitors”. The JVP which worked to establish the Rajapaksa regime and unconditionally supported the regime established, suddenly called for a “Common Candidate” against Rajapaksa in 2009 November. They wanted the people to oppose Rajapaksa in 2010 at the presidential elections, on all counts that we in 2005 opposed Rajapaksa on, except the war. As an answer for the war, they carried General SF as their candidate.
The bottom line is, it took the JVP, five long years to realise they could not read politics right and were wrong in promoting Rajapaksa for presidency. Their politics thus brought a clear division in this country that leaves out Tamil and Muslim minority aspirations in decision making and is now totally controlled by the Sinhala “South”. The JVP keeps making one folly after another, but would not accept they are wrong. It would take more than a decade or more for them to realise that propping up an army General who was politically no alternative to Rajapaksa, would be equally wrong or even more disastrous, with what’s now taking place in this society. They still don’t understand that this country now needs Constitutional reforms for reconciliation and re-democratising of the whole society for its much needed development and stability.
That perhaps is the preface to my story and for what is now politically taking place, unopposed and with no intellectual social discussion.
The Rajapaksa regime is now on its way, in establishing a military rule without uniforms. It has already opened up the path for such rule through Constitutional arrangements. Until the 2010 elections were over, all of it was carried out by violating the 1978 Constitution. The strength, or the provision for such violation was in the immunity the presidency enjoyed. The 17th Amendment was thus violated in letter and spirit, while the JVP agreed that, as necessary for the war to be waged.
On its surface and appearance, this still remains the 1978 Constitution. But, in its content which still carries the same presidential immunity, it has gained enormous dictatorial powers, with the asinine 18th Amendment given a two thirds majority in parliament. This President can now contest presidency any number of times, as he wishes. He could do so, with enormous and enhanced powers under the 18th Amendment that allows him to appoint any person of his choice to any or all of the high posts in public service. This in fact throws the SLFP totally out of guiding decisions, in relation to governance. Kept only for “rubber stamping” his decisions till the last elections, the SLFP along with the whole of the UPFA now becomes irrelevant in this Rajapaksa regime.
The April 2010 parliamentary elections proved Rajapaksas can bring in any one they wish, from outside the SLFP. He has 19 ministers in his cabinet who have very little to do with the SLFP. As deputies, he has 11 who are similar outsiders. There are few such “tag alongs” as MPs as well. Plus now, the cross over half a dozen from the UNP too. This thus makes the SLFP redundant in Rajapaksa politics.
It is in this context, the evolving politics of this regime needs to be assessed. The 18th Amendment would provide legal approval in the future to what was done unconstitutionally in the past. But, for a regime that has no clear programme for reconciliation, re democratising and development, that alone is not enough. It needs a stronger hand in meeting social frustrations, unrest and possible anarchy. This would need an extension of the North – East rule to the “South” with the MoD kept very conspicuous.
North – East is under military rule not only with the deployment of security personnel geographically, but also with civil administration brought under ex-security persons. This leaves those citizens in North and East, with no civil life, though they were lured into voting for local government bodies and the Provincial Council in East.
The appointment of top ex servicemen to positions that have to be held by civil administrators have so far gone without any opposition by the UNP and the JVP. These are two inept political parties who are only counting on Sinhala votes to get to power. Therefore they would not oppose anything that would provide a Sinhala interpretation in favour of war. These appointments have gone without protests from trade unions and other civil organisations too, for fear of being pushed to the wall, by Sinhala patriotic rowdism. All these appointments of ex-servicemen as Governors, as District Secretary, Managing Director in Ports Authority, as foreign diplomats come with such war related, Sinhala heroic interpretations.
Before long and as evident now, Colombo would have its 156 year plus elected Municipality scrapped for an Authority, officially listed with the Defence Ministry. This being a non elected body, would invariably have its top men appointed by the Defence Secretary and in all probability, they could be ex servicemen too. Even if that is not so, it would still be a security sensitive Authority under the MoD.
This military culture being nurtured openly provides a very serious threat to civil life and to democracy. This new trend, gives into a politicised mentality within security forces. It did so in the Administrative Service, before and also now. Almost all top ministry officials who see their retirement age approaching, gets into a “scavenging mode” for the politico Minister. That thus provides them with “advisory or consultancy” posts through Cabinet papers with plenty of perks and privileges, post retirement. Such thinking within the defence establishment can not be avoided, when ex servicemen are placed in civil posts.
These are not issues that the Opposition sees as politically important. They in fact can not oppose this growing military culture. Having accepted the General who fought the war as their presidential candidate, the JVP and the UNP can not oppose other lesser posts accommodating ex servicemen. Their politics did not then see this as a disastrous adventure. Nor do they take it as such, for they now have to live with their war hero, day dreaming on coming to power on Sinhala votes from the South.
Rajapaksa’s agenda of giving the South a “Northern” life, would therefore have no hurdles to jump over. It seems just plain sailing for now.
If I may write the epilogue too, for this story on developing a military culture in curtailing and curbing civil life to hold the Rajapaksa regime safe, it would be to note in advance, no father’s arrogant heritage as a president could salvage a dumb son to live an intellectual leadership role to challenge this regime, just as much as no large amounts of short messages for mega stage performances could make a powdered doll, a pragmatic politician in offering an alternative. This insanity in opposition politics does not make a coffee drinking Opposition leader dissipate his storm in the tea cup to sip right politics. This political dementia in the Opposition does not show any possibility of cure either and dragging it on till the next presidential election in 2016, poses the question, “who would be the Opposition Leader during Namal’s tenure as president ?”