Photo courtesy of Al Jazeera
The presidential and parliamentary elections of 2024 have clearly sent strong signals of a clear change in the political landscape in Sri Lanka. On September 21, the country elected Anura Kumara Dissanayake as its 9th executive president. President Dissanayake is a seasoned politician but has always represented the political left and successfully distanced himself from the traditional power blocs who have previously held power. It was only four years ago that his party was only able to gain 3.84% of the total votes. In 2020, becoming president or gaining a majority in parliament seemed like a distant dream for President Dissanayake and the NPP coalition led by the JVP. However, today he is the president and the NPP has gained an unprecedented majority in the parliament. This is a clear indication of the transition of the political culture, hopefully towards a better one.
A win that no one wanted
During the presidential election campaign President Dissanayake made a famous remark of needing a win that is out of this world. However, he was only able to get 42.31% of the vote. He made a similar remark while campaigning for the parliament election as well. However, addressing the media after casting his vote he said a strong parliament is sufficient as they only wish to bring new laws and policies that are beneficial for the people and two thirds in parliament is expected by those who wish to create laws that are against the people. During the press conference after the election results were released General Secretary of the JPV, Tilvin Silva, stated that “Even we did not ask for a power of two thirds”. He went on to speak on the weight of the responsibility that the NPP now holds. The president and the party have given many promises to the people and the people have given them unprecedented power in the parliament. Now the government does not have any excuses. The NPP wanted a win but they did not want a win this big. It is unlikely that other political camps, despite giving up early on, anticipated a loss this massive. As the president himself said, previous governments who had similar power in parliament did not do good to the people. Even some who voted for the NPP remain sceptical of the result. So this is a win that no one wanted but it is the win that Sri Lanka has given.
A rejection of the political dynasties
The results of the parliamentary elections give us many signals, some of which are more obvious than the rest. The NPP gained 61.56% of the total valid votes, electing 141 members and 18 national list seats in the parliament. In 2010, Mahinda Rajapaksa led UPFA coalition won 60.33% of the vote but only won 144 seats while the Gotabaya Rajapaksa led SLPP government won 145 seats with 59.09% of the total valid votes in 2020. In both instances they were unable to cross the 150 seat benchmark for a two thirds majority in parliament, which the NPP has accomplished in 2024. In this election three sons of former presidents contested from three different parties and another party was strongly backed by another former president. The results show that the people overwhelmingly rejected the conventional political dynasties and have chosen a political camp that has never held power with a massive majority.
Low voter turnout and the failure of the opposition
In the 2020 parliamentary election, 75.89% of the registered voters participated while the turnout was 79.81% in 2015. In the presidential election two months ago, 13.6 million or 79.46% of the registered voters cast their ballots. However, only 11.8 million voters or 68.93% participated in the parliamentary election. At first glance, this may seem like a negative reflection on the winning party. However, the total number of votes it received actually increased by approximately 1.2 million compared to the presidential election in September. In that election, their candidate garnered 5.63 million votes but in the parliamentary election, the party secured 6.86 million votes. Proportionally, it is the opposition’s vote share that has declined. The result is a clear indication that the opposition that is represented by the traditional power houses of politics have not been able to attract their supporters to even show up at the polling stations. This could be the result of a weak and divided political campaign, anti-establishment/anti-elite sentiments among the public following the crisis and lack of transparency in the political party system as well as the limited understanding of the transition of the political culture among the political dinosaurs leading these parties.
Records break
Not only did the NPP gain an unprecedented win, their leading candidates were able to break records on preferential votes. Gampaha district JPV stalwart Vijitha Herath who gained only 37,008 preferential votes in 2020 got a record breaking 716,715 preferential votes. However, he did top this list with 215,540 preferential votes in 2004 when the JVP contested as part of the UPFA coalition. Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya who is contesting for the first time for a national election garnered 655,289 preferential votes from the Colombo district. Their results are records for highest number of preferential votes overtaking the records held by big names in the traditional political camps such as Mahinda Rajapaksa, Ranil Wickremesinghe and Basil Rajapaksa. It is a clear message from the people that they will no longer linger among the traditional actors of politics with a saviour complex.
A rumble-free strategy
A common phenomena during parliamentary elections is the rumble for preferential votes even within the same party. The NPP declared openly that it will not engage in this rumble and it worked perfectly for the party.
While Mr. Herath and Dr. Amarasuriya set historic records by leading the preferential vote counts, it is noteworthy that other district leaders of the NPP performed strongly, securing the highest number of preferential votes within the party in 20 out of 22 electoral districts. In most districts, there was a significant gap between the votes garnered by the district leader and those of other candidates. However, the differences among the other candidates’ votes were relatively smaller. This pattern reflects the campaign strategy employed by the NPP, which encouraged candidates to focus on their respective electoral divisions with only the district leader playing a more prominent role. While this strategy may have seemed less visible at first, it has proven to be highly effective. The party successfully allocated resources more efficiently during the brief campaign period, maximising its impact through this strategy. This also ensured a united, rumble-free front for the NPP while other parties struggled with internal disputes over nominations and competition for preferential votes.
Winning the north
Probably the most widely discussed and least anticipated outcome is the victory of the NPP in the North, where it was able to gain the highest number of votes in both electoral districts in the Northern province. These have traditionally been strongholds of parties such as Illankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), All Ceylon Tamil Congress (ACTC), All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) and Eelam People’s Democratic Party (EPDP). During the presidential election, President Dissanayake was a distant fourth behind P. Ariyanethiran, Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe.
The victory of the NPP in these districts that are dominated by ethnic minority voters signals that voters in the North not only rejected the traditional political camps who represented them previously but have placed their trust in the president and the NPP. This trust is not a free pass; it is a heavy responsibility that most other presidents and governments have not been required to shoulder. The government must remember this trust will only last a limited time and they will be expected to deliver. The president and the NPP must remember that these voters have given them their biggest challenge in forming a social contract in a way that did not exist to governments before.
A rejection of nationalist politics
The JVP has historically been strong on its nationalist policies. However, under the umbrella of the NPP, President Dissanayake and the JVP have painted a more progressive picture distancing themselves from the Sinhala nationalist ideology. This strategy is clearly successful as they have been able to gain votes across all regions and from all communities. Traditional actors who led the Sinhala nationalist camp including the Rajapaksas as well as the Dilith Jayaweera camp who tried to bank on this voter base have been limited to a cumulative of four seats. The situation seems to be similar in the Tamil nationalist camp as prominent actors such as S. Sridharan and Gajendrakumar Ponnambalam barely secured their seats in Jaffna. However, the emergence of Ramathan Archuna is a development to be observed and to see if he will be able to sustain his popularity. It seems as if large portions of both Sinhala and Tamil nationalist voters have lost faith in their traditional nationalist leaders and have moved towards the NPP. It is also important to note that an ethnic Tamil MP was not elected from the Colombo district. Not only did Mano Ganesan, who garnered that vote previously, lose but it seems majority of those votes were won over by the NPP. It is a clear signal that voters have begun to shed politics based on ethnic and religious lines. The ethnic Tamil voters have also given a message that they need a solution beyond the 13th amendment. The future intensity of these nationalist camps will rely on the ability of this government to truly execute meaningful reconciliation processes and a people centric governance process.
For a long time, the Malaiyaha voters of the hill country were often taken for granted, relying on the Ceylon Workers’ Congress (CWC) of the Thondaman family and the Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA) led by figures such as P. Digambaran and V. Radhakrishnan. While these political factions have maintained some level of representation, their dominance has clearly waned. Jeevan Thondaman chose to contest under the elephant symbol of the UNP rather than the gas cylinder symbol used by the rest of the Ranil Wickremesinghe camp. This move underscores how the traditional political camps may have underestimated the integrity and political maturity of the Malaiyaha voters. Remarkably, these voters made history by electing two female parliamentarians for the first time, signalling a significant change in both political preferences and representation.
Colombo sheds its green uniform
The shift of the voter behaviour in Colombo is significant. Historically, electoral seats in Colombo have been dominated by the UNP camp with figures like Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe dominating areas such as Colombo Central and Colombo West even during the recent presidential election. However, these seats were claimed by the NPP during the parliamentary election. In 2020, the SJB secured 73% of the vote in Colombo Central while the UNP won 84% of the vote there in 2015. The SJB, in particular, lost over 18,000 votes in Colombo Central alone during the parliamentary election compared to the presidential election.
This shift is significant considering that many voters in Colombo face challenges such as poverty and inadequate infrastructure. It appears that these voters, once loyal to the traditional UNP camp, are now beginning to lose faith in their long standing political affiliations, signalling a growing disillusionment with the status quo.
A win for the women
The highest number of women ever in Parliament was 13. In this election, 21 women were elected from 22 electoral districts. The NPP has nominated one more female member of parliament through the national list. While this is a positive development, Sri Lanka is still far from achieving ideal representation of women in parliament.
One notable effort in this regard was the NPP’s campaign, Women Together for Malimawa, which focused on forging a strong foundation engaging female voters. The party fielded 36 female candidates of whom 19 were successfully elected. Among the other parties, Rohini Kaviratne and Chamindrani Kiriella are the only two women elected, both from the SJB. While both are daughters of former MPs, their paths to parliament have been quite different.
Rohini Kaviratne, a seasoned politician, has clearly established herself as a strong figure, earning re-election from Matale. On the other hand, Chamindrani Kiriella, a first time candidate, likely benefited from her father’s political legacy. Nonetheless, it is impressive that she managed to secure more votes than several experienced politicians from the SJB camp in Kandy such as Tissa Attanayake, Wasantha Yapa Bandara and M.H.A. Haleem.
While these milestones are encouraging, they highlight the need for continued progress in ensuring equal and meaningful representation for women.
The influence of media moguls and big money campaigns
One of the important debates during this election was how influential the media was and the money in deciding the votes of the people. Dominant media conglomerates were accused of driving false hate based campaigns during the 2019-2020 period. Dilith Jayaweera, who formed and led the Sarvajana Balaya, is a known media and public relations mogul. The United Democratic Voice led by Ranjan Ramanayake was accused of being supported by businessman Subaskaran Allirajah who has an ownership stake in the EAP Broadcasting group that owns the Swarnawahini and Monara media networks. However, neither of these groups were able to attract the masses despite fielding a few famous candidates. Previously there was a norm that the campaign that spends more is likely to win more. However, it was not the candidate who spent the most during the presidential election campaign period who ended up being the president. If we are to analyse the spending on political ads on Meta platforms from October 14 to November 12, only Kader Masthan was able to secure a seat among the candidates in the top 10 individual spenders.
The party pages NPP Sri Lanka and United Democratic Voice had spent over Rs. 2 million during this period and the page of the President Anura Kumara Dissanayake spent over Rs. 1.8 million for political ads during this period. This is a clear reflection that while social media has growing influence in the decision making of the people, spending on advertisements and unrelatable campaigns by expensive PR companies was not sufficient to convince the voters.
A transition marked by significant responsibilities
The first two national elections held after the aragalaya clearly marked the beginning of a transition of the political culture. Advancement and accessibility of technology and increased civic consciousness are among many reasons leading this transition. It is the legacy of the aragalaya that expelled a failed executive president that infused the realisation of not needing to rely on traditional political camps as well as providing the courage to break personal political biases. Regardless of the outcomes of this government, the transition of the political culture should be converted into a positive outcome.
The transition of the political culture also informs the government that it will be held more accountable than any previous government. The president in his address at the Commemoration of the Fallen Heroes of November stated, “Power has given us many things. The executive power and majoritarian power in parliament enables us to bring in any law, give any order. But we must remember this power is given to us as a test (trial). Who are the judges? The People.”
While economic recovery and improving quality of living has been the priority for the voters, it will only be the tip of the iceberg for the government. The NPP manifesto requires the government to re-negotiate with the IMF and to revisit the debt sustainability analysis. The government should drive meaningful and impactful reconciliation efforts strongly rooted in the foundations of human rights and transitional justice. It has also promised a new constitution for the country. It is important that it will bring this constitution efficiently through a transparent and inclusive consultative process. The voters are also waiting to see how the government will act on oppressive and draconian laws such as the Prevention of Terrorism Act, the Muslim Marriage and Divorce Act and the Online Safety Act. The government should also work towards securing freedom of expression and depoliticising the state media. Truth and justice for the victims of the Easter Sunday Attacks will be a priority for the government. The government should respect its voters from the Malaiyaha community and focus on uplifting lives and providing sustainable solutions beyond mere salary increments. State sector reforms too will be crucial. While larger attention has been about local politics, the success of the government will also rely on how well they are able to balance the global political stage. One of the bigger challenges that is not widely discussed will be climate change. Regular floods and droughts have devastated lives too often in the recent past. The government must take effective climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.
The new president and the government have an unprecedented mandate from the people. It is based on a promise of rooting out corruption, changing the political culture, respecting fundamental rights and effectively improving the quality of living among all Sri Lankans. Upholding democracy and respecting rule of law should be the foundation of this government. While this is a win that no one wanted, it is an opportunity to transform this country. Positive transformation of a failed state will take time but the president and the government has a heavy burden to drive change in the right direction. This great mandate is also a great responsibility.