Photo courtesy of Counterpoint
The public appears to be pleased with most of the measures the president and the interim cabinet have taken. Yet there is much more to be done. The recent allegations made against the NPP that its economic policy framework envisages a protectionist economy is also baseless. Ensuring food, energy and water security does not require an economy to be protectionist. Many developed and neo-liberal economies that are said to be open have resorted to such economic strategies.
Still, we need to be concerned whether the reliance on IMF debt restructuring process would help the country and its people to come out of the current poly-crisis situation. The solution IMF provides is in the form of a strict treatment. That is of further liberalising the national economy, by privatising more assets and other resources of economic, national and social significance that need to be kept in the hands of a national government. Non-compliance with such measures may provide the necessary security to the people, during risky/crises situations such as external challenges that are rapidly escalating in many regions of the world.
A workable parliamentary majority
During the presidential election, the percentage of votes the NPP gained rose from three percent to around 42 percent. Fifty eight percent of the electorate did not vote for the NPP. Nevertheless, this does not imply at all that the vast majority of these voters were against the NPP. While we were in Sri Lanka, we had the opportunity to meet up with many voters who had not voted for the NPP during the presidential election. Many of them were supportive of the work the resident has already begun. Yet some would say that it is still too early to make a political decision in favour of the NPP in the upcoming parliamentary election.
Those who supported the NPP at the presidential election have the expectation that the NPP will have a strong representation in parliament. To deliver the election pledges the NPP has made so far and to follow their policy platform it needs to have a two thirds majority in parliament. Or else there should be an opposition who will be supportive or accommodative of the changes that will be proposed to the constitution including the abolition of the executive presidency.
This may not be an impossible task given that many elected members will find it extremely difficult to vote against any proposition that will curb corruption, wastage and mismanagement and abolish the executive presidential system that mainly led the country to its financial collapse. On the other hand, there is a perception that a two thirds majority of the NPP in parliament may lead to disastrous circumstances similar to that took place when Sirimavo Bandaranaike, J.R. Jayewardene and the Rajapaksas were holding power.
Executive presidency
As in the US or France, in Sri Lanka the new president is the head of the state as well as the government. The president has the power to rule the country using executive orders. However, to formulate new policy frameworks and enact appropriate legislation, particularly to do the necessary constitutional reforms and abolish the executive presidency, the NPP needs extensive support within the legislature.
This is the political challenge the NPP is currently faced with. To achieve its proclaimed goals, it needs to have at least a two thirds majority in the parliament or a parliament with a majority opposition that will comprise members with whom the NPP government will be able to work with.
If such a situation does not materialise at the upcoming general election, we may have circumstances for a cohabitationgovernment. It will be like the one Sri Lanka had in 2015 with the president and the prime minister from two different political groups. They were trying to implement two divergent personal/political agendas, thus virtually attempting to undermine each other. Building consensus in such a situation, regardless of the hopes and wishes of many, will be an extremely arduous and uphill task.
If that happens, it will be a disastrous scenario because the NPP will not be able to implement its political programme to achieve the much needed stability, equity and prosperity the electorate yearns for. Moreover, the country will go back to an inert and static government reminiscent of the governments since independence.
NPP’s approach to national question
During his inaugural speech the president called for national unity and pledged for cleaner politics while working towards a better political culture. However, the NPP has not declared a clear and firm position with regard to the way it would politically deal with the national question. This situation appears to have led to certain chaotic statements being made by different speakers on this issue.
Despite these unfortunate circumstances, the NPP appears to hold onto its position that it will resort to consultation and participatory democracy in addressing the issues posed by the national question. Any deviation from an inclusive, participative and consultative approach will once again lead to a process of antagonising communities against one another.
Although the Tamil militancy that advocated establishing a separate state of Tamil Eelam was defeated militarily, the issues that affect the Tamil and Muslim communities have not been politically addressed. Those communities encounter these issues simply because they are not part of the majority community.
The world history of many countries including the US, the former Soviet Union and Russia has experienced many tragic moments where the problems related to the national identity of the people who do not belong to the majority of those countries were not addressed by mere economic development. Simple economic development, socialist or not, has not addressed such problems anywhere in the world.
In comparison, the NPP has performed somewhat better at the presidential election in terms of the number of votes it received from the Tamil speaking population. However, both the SJB leader (with the ITAK support) and the former president received an even better response from the Tamil speaking voters. This has happened despite the actual harm done to the Tamil communities by the policies and activities adopted by them during their past tenures.
Nevertheless, let us live with the hope that the NPP will not fall prey to the machinations of diverse political conspirators and will not act the way the previous governments did during the last 76 years. That hope can be realised if and only if the civil society continues to be active and dynamic and keep reminding the NPP of the pledges they have made to the pluralist electorate and hold them responsible and accountable to their words.
Read Part 2 here: https://groundviews.org/2024/10/28/towards-stability-equity-and-prosperity-in-sri-lanka-part-2/