Photo courtesy of Sri Lanka Brief
How accurate are pollsters? Access My India is a leading consumer data intelligence company that predicted a major win for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the recent Indian elections. Its chairman and managing director, Pradeep Gupta, broke down in tears on a TV programme expressing his disappointment with his projection’s failure. Gupta had predicted that the NDA would win 361 to 401 seats. However, the BJP has lost its majority and failed to form a government without the support of coalition parties.
Trained at Harvard University, Gupta emerged as the number one psephologist (a person who studies how people vote in elections). The Lok Sabha election is a vivid example of how risky it is to rely on preconceived calculations of electoral success.
The Institute for Health Policy (IHP), a non-governmental organisation, has emerged as a leading pollster in Sri Lanka. Since July 2022, when President Ranil Wickremesinghe took office, the IHP’s Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) has been showing A.K. Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa are both leading in competitions, sometimes tied, sometimes up and down.
The survey shows that in May 2024, Sajith Premadasa and A.K. Dissanayake tied with 39% of the vote but in April 2024, the NPP is in the lead with 39%, and the SJB is second in the race with 38%. However, the survey revealed in February 2024 that A.K. Dissanayake was in the lead with 53% support, Sajith Premadasa was second with 34% support and Ranil Wickremesinghe had 6% support. But the opinion poll in December 2023 shows A.K. Dissanayake at 50% ahead of Sajith Premadasa at 33% and President Ranil Wickremesinghe at 9%.
According to the survey, President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s UNP is still far from the competition. If the survey is accurate, Ranil Wickremesinghe is not eligible to run as a presidential candidate.
But the updates in July 2023 show a steady rise in support for President Ranil Wickremesinghe to 19% of likely voters with A.K. Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa at 39% and 33%, respectively. In May 2023, Ranil Wickremesinghe’s support was 18% and in April it was 13%.
IHP’s opinion tracker survey appears to be confusing. For instance, while Ranil Wickremesinghe garnered 18% support in the August 2023 survey, his support dropped to just 8% in the March poll. Meanwhile, opinion polls display that A.K. Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa are consistently leading. Why are they leading? Why is Ranil Wickremesinghe still left behind?
In the 2019 presidential election, A.K. Dissanayake received 3.16% of the votes. If economic issues were the people’s top priority, Ranil Wickremesinghe should have been their sole option. However, the opinion polls indicate that the majority of people in the South disliked President Wickremesinghe. So what do people want beyond the economic issue?
After Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s plunge, the JVP became the main talking point in southern politics. Gotabaya Rajapaksa had the majority of the Sinhala people’s unanimous support. The power struggle between the Ranil Wickremesinghe-Maithipala Sirisena coalition government and the fear instilled in the Sinhala people after the Easter bombings were the primary reasons why the majority of Sinhalese turned towards Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
Following President Rajapaksa’s stepping down, the question arose as to who was competent to lead the people. A.K. Dissanayake, during a meeting in Sweden, stressed that overseas Sri Lankans played a key role in bringing President Rajapaksa to power in the 2019 presidential election. This time, the NPP has emerged as the primary choice among Sri Lankans living abroad. Through this, the NPP/JVP is trying to portray itself as the sole protectors of the Sinhala people.
The IHP’s opinion poll seems to be entirely based on the South because as the poll suggests even if A.K. Dissanayake leads the race, he is unlikely to garner much support among the minority population. Given this background, Ranil Wickremesinghe and Sajith Premadasa are the main contenders among minorities.
As far as this presidential election is concerned, the votes of the minority population are going to play a key role. If Ranil Wickremesinghe contests with the support of the Rajapaksa clan, he may encounter difficulties in garnering the support of Tamil and Muslim voters; it is highly unlikely that the Tamil people will shift their votes towards the Ranil-Rajapaksa alliance. During the three post war presidential elections, the Tamil’s opposition to Rajapaksa has shaped their votes.
Against this backdrop, it is likely that most of the Tamil people’s votes in the North and East will go to Sajith Premadasa. A.K. Dissanayake lacks a stance that can appease the Tamil people as the majority of them perceive the JVP as a staunch nationalist organisation and consider the JVP to have made a major contribution during the final phase of the war against the LTTE. Such a view exists among ordinary Tamil people. However, despite the sudden announcement of acceptance of the 13A, the JVP has not taken a firm stance on the issue of a political solution for the Tamil people.
None of the candidates from the South are in a position to provide a permanent solution to the ethnic question. Civil society groups that formed the Tamil People’s General Assembly are considering fielding a Tamil common candidate. If the Tamil common candidate successfully gets at least 50% of Tamil votes, it will seriously affect who is the winner of the three front races. The 2005 presidential election demonstrated how Tamil votes could significantly influence the winner. Considering these factors, it remains unclear who will emerge the winner in the presidential race. But one cannot sit in the chair this time without the support of the majority of the minority voters, especially the Tamil people in the North and Eastern provinces.