R.M.B. Senanayake
Those who justify the abrogation of the CFA point to the numerous violations of the truce by the LTTE. They point out that it was a dead letter. They are right. But the CFA did not prohibit re-arming by either side and while the Government did so openly the LTTE did so covertly.
Those who believe in a military solution argue rightly that Prabakaran will never agree to anything less than Eelaam or a separate state. They hope to defeat the LTTE and re-conquer the territory which they held at the time of the Ceasefire. The government has already re-conquered the East. The Government hopes to dictate a political solution which it thinks will be accepted by the Tamils. The Government hopes to vanquish the LTTE and perhaps kill or capture Prabakaran.
Thos who argue against a military solution say even a military occupation of the north and east will not bring about peace but only drive the LTTE underground to the jungles where they will wage a guerrilla war and also unleash a terror campaign in the south, blowing up economic targets and killing civilians, adversely affecting the economy. These people also point out that in any war even the victor has to sacrifice troops and I am told 15% is about the figure of soldiers that will die or be maimed. These people argue that a political solution which includes the LTTE is the way out to end the conflict. But they realize that Prabakaran will not accept a peace agreement and a political solution short of Eelaam. He doesn’t seem to care about the loss of civilian life that is bound to ensure when waging war in highly populated areas. In the past civilians were not caught up in a war unless the enemy occupied the territory. But with the extension of war to the air and the use of aerial bombing it is now possible to kill civilians without occupying territory. So civilian casualties seem to be inevitable as argued by hawks.
Ranil realized that Prabakaran was not genuine and that a peace agreement (not even a CFA) could not be left to the good faith of Prabakaran. But he could not have involved an International Peace Keeping Force to monitor the ground situation as in Kashmir and Palestine earlier, since the public would not have accepted it. So he wove an international safety net involving the big powers as part of an eventual political solution. He obviously wanted the big powers or the Co-Chairs to underwrite any political solution and peace agreement. India did not join in and this weakened the strategy. Without a political solution and a peace agreement underwritten by the International Community it is very unlikely that the LTTE will honor any agreement. Of course the LTTE can point to violations of Agreements by the GOSL from the B-C Pact onwards. Anyway it is not possible to sustain a peace agreement only on the good faith of the two parties. So these people argue that the conflict will drag on taking the form of a guerilla war and a terror campaign even if the Armed Forces conquer the North and dictate a political solution. The only eventual solution will then be a two state solution and not even that for a permanent state of hostility between the two states could arise.
The abrogation of the CFA will also make the position of Tamil moderates untenable. They will have to accept a political solution which continues majority community hegemony which is desired by hawks like the JVP and JHU. The JVP perhaps wants to destabilize the south. Didn’t they oppose the Indo-Lanka Pact and take to the streets? The Tamils in the South will also face an awkward future. They will have to endure the present status quo. The attitude of the Tamil Diaspora is also likely to harden in favor of the LTTE. The future will show whether the abrogation of the CFA was a case of our burning our boats