Photo courtesy of Sky News
Elections are often about creating divisions within the electorate and channeling power to the majority opinion. Sri Lanka’s ninth presidential election concluded with an unprecedented result, signaling a new chapter in the country’s political landscape. For the first time in history no candidate secured over 50% of the votes, triggering a second preference vote count under the Presidential Election Polling Act. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the NPP, received 42.31% of the votes followed by Sajith Premadasa of the SJB with 32.76% and Ranil Wickremesinghe at 17.27%.
While the election may seem like a victory for President Dissanayake, it has ignited a broader conversation about political division and the true nature of electoral representation. Nearly 58% of voters did not cast their votes for the declared winner, raising questions about whether the election results reflect voter ignorance or confidence in safeguarding rights and identity, particularly in the politically polarized Northern and Eastern provinces.
In the Northern and Eastern provinces, where Tamil voters constitute the majority, the election outcome stands as a reflection of this division. Their rejection of President Dissanayake in many of these areas is seen by some as a sign of ignorance of voters. However, a closer analysis shows that the North East’s election results are less about ignorance and more about a confident belief in who could protect and promote the rights and identity of the Tamil and Muslim people.
The preferences of North East voters played a decisive role in shaping the national result, particularly in their support for candidates who they believe could address their long standing political aspirations. Tamil political figure P. Ariyanethran, who represented Tamil-specific concerns such as self-determination, justice for war crimes and federalism, gained significant traction. In Jaffna, Sajith Premadasa won 32.6% of the votes, P. Ariyanethran received 31.39% and President Dissanayake secured only 7.29%. Similarly, in Vanni, Premadasa led with 43.92%, while Ariyanethran and President Dissanayake followed with 16.74% and 9.86%, respectively.
The polarization in these regions is a reflection of the Tamil community’s ongoing struggle for recognition as it continues to prioritize its rights and identity over aligning with Southern candidates who may not fully address its concerns.
Historically, Sri Lankan presidents who were elected without the support of the Tamil voters in the North have faced significant challenges. Former Presidents J.R. Jayewardene, Mahinda Rajapaksa and Gotabhaya Rajapaksa secured their majorities through the support of the Sinhalese electorate in the South but each had to struggle to gain support from the North and East once in power. These leaders, while powerful in the South, were largely shunned by the Tamil community, reflecting the long standing disconnect between Tamil political aspirations and central government leadership.
The North East vote division in 2024 demonstrates a continuing mistrust of left wing nationalist politics represented by President Dissanayake, who secured the majority opinion in the South but failed to capture the confidence of the Tamil electorate. The JVP, historically associated with a Sinhala nationalist stance, has struggled to gain traction among the Tamil population due to past actions and its lack of emphasis on minority rights in its current policies.
Rather than reflecting ignorance, the results in the North and East show that the Tamil people voted with confidence in leaders they believed could protect their rights and identity. P. Ariyanethran, who focused on Tamil self-determination, federalism and war crimes accountability, struck a chord with Tamil electorates. His policy platform aligned closely with the aspirations of the Tamil people, explaining why he gained substantial second and third preference votes in the North.
The significant support for Southern candidates such as Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe, who represent the liberal conservatism political views in the North, shows that these Sinhalese leaders have garnered some trust among Tamil voters. Both Premadasa and Wickremesinghe have shown sensitivity history toward Tamil issues and have taken steps in the past to address these concerns, gaining the confidence of voters in these regions. However, it is clear that the Tamil electorate continues to prioritize candidates who address their specific demands for self-determination and justice over broader national concerns such as anti-corruption or patriotism that may resonate more with Southern voters.
For President Dissanayake, uniting a country deeply divided along ethnic and political lines is an enormous challenge. His party, with its history of resistance to devolution and emphasis on Sinhalese nationalism, faces skepticism in the North. While his government has promised stability and inclusivity, meaningful progress on Tamil self-governance, federalism and accountability for wartime atrocities will be key to building trust with the Tamil electorate.
The North East vote shows that the Tamil community is not interested in aligning with a Southern-led government focused solely on issues of national corruption or cultural change. Instead, they remain focused on their ongoing struggle to secure political rights and recognition. The new president will need to address these issues directly if he hopes to bridge the divide between the North and South.
The 2024 presidential election has exposed the deep divisions along ethnic and regional lines. The question remains whether this polarization a reflection of ignorance or a confident assertion of rights. In the North and East, it is clear that the Tamil community’s voting behavior is driven by a desire to safeguard their identity and ensure their political aspirations are met.
As Sri Lanka moves forward, the new president’s ability to address the concerns of the Tamil people, foster inclusivity and promote meaningful power sharing will be critical to his success. Whether Sri Lanka can overcome these divisions and move toward national unity remains to be seen but the new government’s approach to governance, ethnic reconciliation and political reform will play a decisive role in shaping the country’s future.