Photo courtesy of Crisis Group
Incidents of election violence escalated significantly in September, culminating in a murder and a potential second incident. Ninety six violations were recorded on September 15 alone. Arson, assault, threats and the misuse of removing restrictions on vehicle imports right before the election were some of the violations highlighted in a report by the Centre for Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV) covering the campaign period from August 15 to September 18.
The report pointed out the possible escalation of violence on election day and in the immediate post-election period.
CMEV noted that what had began as a peaceful public election campaign became a contentious and potentially troubling situation during the last 10 days. Major incidents recorded during last two weeks include arson especially of party offices of the NPP/JVP (10), assault (22) and threat and intimidation (14), all of which were dwarfed by serious abuse of state resources and state power (64).
It emphasised the need for enhanced electoral monitoring, particularly regarding the misuse of state resources and recommended strengthening the authority of the Election Commission of Sri Lanka (ECSL), noting that it lacked the power to investigate and prosecute campaign finance violations.
“The most troubling issue that has negatively affected the conduct of a free and fair election is the widespread and systematic abuse of state power and resources by the President in support of his own candidacy in this election. CMEV has made formal complaints to the Election Commission regarding the serious violation, by candidate Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe, of Sections 78 (Undue Influence) and 79 (Bribery) of the Presidential Election Act No 15 of 1981, as well as of core clauses of the Code of Conduct for candidates. These complaints include the decision to raise state employees’ salaries with effect from 2025 publicised on the eve of the postal voting period, introducing tax reduction regulations and removing restrictions on vehicle imports, as well as sacking deputy ministers who did not support his presidential campaign. The abuse of power by provincial Governors is a serious concern, as they operate directly under the President, and have even wider powers in the absence of elected provincial or local government representative.
“The Election Commission has on numerous occasions attempted to prevent such blatant abuse, but it appears to have succeeded only in a limited number of less serious instances than those cited above. In summary, is clear that President Wickremesinghe has chosen to defy both the Supreme Court and the Election Commission of Sri Lanka in his quest to support his own candidacy in the presidential election by any means possible, including through using the Cabinet, the Presidential Secretariat and all ministries under his purview,” the report said.
It pointed out that people in the north and east were disengaged from the election because the discourse and structure of the campaign had marginalised many of them. “In this sense, the absence of any incidents in the North, for instance, is more a reflection of the disillusioned perception of the irrelevance of this election, seen by many as a “southern” issue, than due to any other reason. There are also serious concerns raised by the Malaihar Tamil advocacy groups about bringing in the plantation companies in to the voting process through, for instance, making the estate authorities responsible for issuing temporary voter identity cards. Other minority and marginalized groups have also expressed their worries about the mainly majoritarian focus of this election campaign,” the report said.
CMEV reviewed over 8,000 social media posts related to the election with 153 flagged for offensive speech, targeting ethnicity, religion and identity, although misinformation was not widespread.
Groundviews spoke to CMEV’s Chief Operations Officer, Professor Arjuna Parakrama, about its new monitoring apps, the potential for violence and the need to tighten regulations on campaign financing.
Have the regulations to monitor elections been effective?
CMEV has been involved in election monitoring since 1997. Over the years, we have not only contributed to reducing election related violence but also played a role in shaping the legal framework that governs elections. Key legal cases that CMEV has initiated have led to significant changes. For example, after the 2015 election there was a crucial ruling that allowed voters to petition at alternative polling centres. This is an important decision given the number of polling centres that can be as many as 40,000. Managing such a large number is extremely challenging so allowing this flexibility is a major step forward. For the 2024 Presidential Election, CMEV has deployed extensive monitoring teams on the ground. We have around 1,000 people stationed at various polling and counting centres. We have two observers in each of the 160 electoral divisions across 25 districts and nine provinces. This widespread presence allows us to gather real time data from the ground up, which is crucial for our reporting and analysis.
Are there new mechanisms in your monitoring process this year?
We have developed a mobile app that can be used by our teams to document, record and update information on election violations as they occur. This is the first time we are using such technology and it’s proving to be very useful. It complements our traditional paper trail and enhances the speed and accuracy of our data collection. The app is still being revised and fine-tuned but it’s a significant step forward in our monitoring capabilities. We are developing another app to analyse the impact of incidents. Previously we only counted the number of incidents but that approach can be misleading. One serious incident can have a much larger impact on the election environment than 25 minor ones. For instance, a violent attack that disrupts the electoral process in a key area could be far more damaging than numerous smaller violations elsewhere. That’s why we’re focusing on an impact assessment this time. This new approach will help us provide a more nuanced understanding of how different types of incidents influence the overall election. We plan to include this analysis in our final report, which will cover the entire election period, election day and post-election developments. We believe capturing the post-election phase is crucial because sometimes the most significant incidents occur after the votes are cast. The final report will include data collected through our new app and we hope it will be a valuable resource for understanding the dynamics of this election and for parliamentary elections as well.
What are your observations on campaign finance?
Despite the introduction of the Regulation of Election Expenditure Act, there are still significant hurdles in enforcing spending limits. The ECSL’s lack of authority to investigate and take action against violations remains a major obstacle. We have seen numerous instances of excessive spending and unregulated donations that distort the playing field and undermine the fairness of the election. We are monitoring these issues but more robust legal frameworks and enforcement mechanisms are urgently needed.
How about the role of social media in this election?
Social media has played a significant role in shaping public opinion and the campaign narrative. We reviewed over 8,000 social media posts related to the election of which 153 were flagged for offensive speech targeting ethnicity, religion and identity. While misinformation hasn’t been as widespread as we feared, the potential for online platforms to spread harmful narratives is still a concern. We believe that better regulation and monitoring of online content are necessary to prevent the spread of hate speech and disinformation.
Will there be violence on election day and afterwards?
The recent spike in incidents is definitely concerning. For instance, we went from only nine incidents on August 16 to 96 on September 15. This tenfold increase in a short span indicates a volatile situation that could potentially lead to violence on election day. We are deploying additional resources and collaborating closely with security forces and other monitoring bodies to prevent this from happening but the situation is precarious. The responsibility for the violence is spread across various groups; no single group dominates the incidents. We have identified several key players from different political factions who have been involved to varying degrees. This makes it more challenging to address as it is not limited to just one party or organisation. The involvement of multiple actors indicates a broader systemic issue that needs to be addressed through stronger regulations and enforcement. We hope to refine our monitoring and reporting mechanisms for future elections, particularly parliamentary ones. Strengthening the legal framework, enhancing the authority of the ECSL and improving collaboration between civil society organisations and state agencies are essential steps. We also look forward to more robust technology solutions that can help us analyse and respond to incidents more effectively. Our ultimate goal is to ensure free, fair and peaceful elections.
Click to watch the full interview with Prof. Arjuna Parakrama :
