Comments on: General Election 2015 Pre Election Opinion Poll – Top Line Report

By: willie fernando

willie fernando — Sat, 15 Aug 2015 11:29:00 +0000

In reply to Ceylon Shiping. your words describes your mind. MR must rise up to clean your ill will.

By: Sas

Sas — Tue, 11 Aug 2015 03:51:00 +0000

In reply to Toromale. You are delusionall if you think UPFA can take more than 100 seats

By: Ceylon Shiping

Ceylon Shiping — Mon, 10 Aug 2015 20:09:00 +0000

seems quite right, yet I do not believe maniac MR will get that much, he and his family can’t fool young generation anymore

By: Toromale

Toromale — Wed, 05 Aug 2015 23:04:00 +0000

In reply to Independent. Minority votes will be split this time with TNA and UNP. Hence Tamil minority votes will be favoring TNA with 65% and UNP 35%. If MR s 53% of the Sinhalese votes and 35% of the minority votes UPFA will take 10-11 districts with 90-93 polling divisions. Seats are allocated based on the following formula Polling visions with 51% or more votes + Bonus seats in winning districts with 51%+ National seats based on the national voter %. In this case if we take the low values winning 90 polling divisions+ bonus seats 11 (some districts have 2 seats) + National seats 29*48 = 14. If you add all that 115. If you take the high 93+15+14 = 122. Even based on this poll UPFA will is at an advantage. This is battle between UNP lead by RW and UPFA lead MR and TNA. In a 3 way battle UNP always loses. This has been last 21 years. UPFA lead by MR will take 115 to 122 seats.

By: Mohan

Mohan — Wed, 05 Aug 2015 13:40:00 +0000

In reply to Independent. Valid point sir If you read the full report. Rail is winning in provinces with large number seats. Which can be interpreted as more than 50 percent seats. MR will get minimum 60.

By: puniselva

puniselva — Tue, 04 Aug 2015 12:27:00 +0000

In reply to Kusal Perera. Do.

By: Independent

Independent — Tue, 04 Aug 2015 06:40:00 +0000

If 31.9:36 proportional opinion division is true, it is 47% 53% popularity among Sinhalese. 65% to 35% among others is a little surprising, I thought is like 85% 15% split. Based on conservative estimation of 65:35 minority and 47: 53 majority votes basis it become 52% voters prefer Ranil and 48% MR. This appears to be close. Nevertheless this is not a Presidential election and seat winning ability could be different to this.

By: Kusal Perera

Kusal Perera — Tue, 04 Aug 2015 01:26:00 +0000

Seems the survey reflects the general trend. Yet what’s not been highlighted is the perception of the society on the political solution to the ethnic conflict. Do they believe the country needs a political solution or do they now think with the end of war and end of LTTE there is no conflict to be solved?
Also, it would be important to see how the Sinhala urban middle class and the ordinary Sinhala rural voter see elections and what they expect from the next government.