This general election would bring about a parliament with a clear majority. Few if at all, would dispute that. While there is also talk of a two-thirds majority in parliament for President’s UPFA, that possibility seems remote, unless the Southern voter goes berserk. That for the Sinhala voter is not that impossible and then, all calculations and forecasts could go haywire as well. Such are elections now in Sri Lanka. Wholly unpredictable with most faults conveniently left with computers and with post election reports by election monitors who had never been effective for the past 20 years at least.
Yet at this election, what is easily predictable is the quality of the parliament that would be elected. A parliamentary candidate from the UPFA, Minister Amunugama went on record saying there are “hooligans” contesting from their own lists. Another who discreetly jumped over to be a minister, carries a paid advertisement in the media, saying he always stands for “decent and honourable politics”.
One thing is absolutely certain. The preferential vote system has provided this regime the opportunity to promote “hooligans” and the “indecent” from their contesting lists. Those remaining few who want the voter to accept they have some “respect and decency” left in them, have been exposed as those who do nothing to clean it up.
These few self declared “decent” politicians even if elected, would not in any way make a difference in this rule of a “Kleptocracy”. Their “decency” had no impact in the past years, compromising to keep their privileged positions in a festering, corrupt regime. They would not do any better in the future, in a family regime, they are not prepared to even criticise or denounce, for want of position and privilege.
It is therefore not just personalities that matter, but what politics they stand for and work on, that matters. That is what makes this regime different to orthodox “autocracies” and “dictatorships”. Different to Hitler’s, Idi Amin’s or even Mugabe’s regime. This regime is unique in its racist politics and in its nepotist rule. It grew in a wholly different political context to all others, both locally and globally. It could if at all, be more akin to the other Theravada Buddhist country, Senior General Than Shwe’s present Burma, officially known as Myanmar.
First is that this regime would never have established itself this strong, in a pre 9/11 world. It was only possible after the New York 9/11 terror attack, when all developed democracies in the world accepted, “terrorism as a global evil”. When they all geared to curb democratic life, in allowing a ruthless anti terrorist network of State controlled “military intelligence” to work across borders, breaching all accepted democratic and diplomatic norms and systems. They all covertly helped each other with logistics, intelligence and even arms procurement. India assisted the Rajapaksa regime all through the war and was accused as responsible for the human tragedy the country is left with. The British government had to accept they provided arms to SL during the war, violating their own policies and decisions.
With such international and regional connivance in waging war and with financial backing by China, Iran, Pakistan and then Russia too, all what this regime needed was local mobilisation in support of the war. That was not achieved by simply and ruthlessly trampling the society into silence. That would not have been easy in a country with a long tradition of democratic life. Next to India, Sri Lanka is the only country that can boast of a long history of democratic social existence, equipped with all the necessary constitutional provisions and a long list of social tools that make democracy and freedom, a part of socio political life.
Thus this Rajapaksa regime could not have emerged in any other way than in how it came about to dismantle the very democratic structures that paved the way for its emergence. It needed a political platform and a social ideology to justify the dismantling of democratic structures. The political platform was found in the “unitary State against Tamil separatism” and the Sinhala supremacist ideology that argued for the right of Sinhala Buddhist ownership of this country provided the ideology. Together this justified the war that also justified dismantling of all democratic structures, one by one in the name of a patriotic war.
The violation of the Constitution in paving the way to manipulate all important and sensitive appointments that had to be independent and out of politics, like that of the Attorney General, the IGP and all appointments there after, the Human Rights Commission, the Police Commission, tampering with the Bribery Commission and then allowing the Defence Secretary to decide politics of war violating Chapter XXXII, sections 1.1 to 1.4 of the Establishment Code and also using the Army Commander to politicise the security establishment, helped establish an arrogant family regime.
The Sinhala ideology that supported the war on the other hand was not challenged by the defeatist Opposition, thus allowing the regime leadership to establish itself as that which saved the Sinhala nation from Tamil separatism. This racist politics thus allowed the whole media to be threatened and tamed and the whole State to be ruthlessly turned into what it is today, from the moderate Sinhala State it was, half a decade ago.
The Rajapaksas thus usurped all power and left a society that has no law and order and no justice. Has no independent establishments that people could turn to, for redress when they most want. Has a corrupt and a politicised State machinery that understands only the needs of a selfish regime and a democracy that is only procedural at its best and never functional.
This regime is therefore an “autocracy” established with the political consensus of the people, for the express need of the regime to rob, loot and plunder. That allowed Mihin Air to swallow Rs. 06 billion in one gulp and have another Rs. 03 billion added, all from public money, while the 20 million people were only allocated Rs. 05 billion for their health and live without adequate medication. Losses in AirLanka, CEB, Ports Authority, Ceylon Petroleum Corporation, SLTB and RDA only, is said to top over Rs. 72 billion during the reign of the Rajapaksas. Another Rs. 150 million and more is spent annually on 20 plus Advisers to the President.
If one keeps adding the waste on mega cabinets, housing allowances, water and electricity for these houses, ministers asking for more billions after over spending, the plunder of public money is colossal and unending. Its a typical “autocracy” of a group of “kleptists”.
It is now quite similar to the Burmese military junta where Senior General Than Shwe’s whole family, in laws and even grand sons have taken over its economy as their fiefdom. Others in the junta too have sizeable kickbacks, as supporters and shareholders of the regime. A “kleptocracy” can not go on with constitutionality and democracy. Thus the Burmese junta surprised most Burmese and Buddhists who thought, it would not touch Buddhist monks being a Theravada society, when they massacred the “saffron protest” that challenged its rule in 2007 September.
There is yet a difference in Sri Lanka. This regime has yet to show, it respects Buddhist monks, it respects democracy and that it is for all citizens, an elected government. The contradiction lies in that it can not go on with such pretence for long. It needs a new life with a new turn that would give it more muscle. This election is being used for that evolutionary phase. In getting the people to elect a legislature, that would not be of any purpose in legislating law and deciding policy to democratise and develop the country.
The calibre of people nominated to contest, shows the quality of the parliament, this Rajapaksa regime is keen in having. The lists have highly suspect drug dealers and criminal elements, gang leaders of underworld goons, political stooges known for heavy corruption and almost wasted celebrities, all promoted as patriots, philanthropists, task masters and social leaders. Most of them would be mug head legislators who would only be good enough to do what the regime insists. Good enough to legalise all what this Rajapaksa regime would wish to have as theirs.
In a country where the main Opposition does not have a gutty intellectual leadership that could tell the people a rogue in robes is no clergy or saint, its such mug heads with enormous black money who emerge as leaders. The head of this puppet clan they see and understand as the patriot saviour, is their own creation during the past years. The next parliament would have no reason to think of the 13th Amendment or the 17th Amendment to the Constitution or waste time discussing and debating policy for development. Thanks therefore to the Opposition that meekly withdrew from providing an alternate leadership to the people and therefore allows the election of a lumpen parliament.
It would thus be a kleptocracy that permits freedom to the people to watch the rulers rob, in the name of the people who elected them.