I agree with you… SF doesn’t stand a chance. I will be surprised if he gets 40% of the vote. If Ranil runs and loses again, that will be the end of the UNP, credibility-wise. How many lost elections can one man take (especially to the same opponent)? The UNP is still the party of opposition (not the part of defeat)… it must needs maintain some degree of credibility.

The die-hard UNPers you speak of are most likely to be found in Kandy and Colombo. Kandy and Colombo went to the UNP in the last election; hopefully the trend will continue.

Diehard UNP’s will not vote for either MR or SF. Therefore, quite a few solid UNPers may not cast their votes. That will only help MR.

SF was a soldier and now a retired one. I cannot comprehend why he is contesting? It is highly unlikely that he will win against an incumbet President who is quite popular. SF may have stood a better chance against an unpopular politician. All incumbent Presidents have got a second term. Premadasa was killed that is why he did not get a second term.
Even if Ranil contested he would have lost. Therefore, it would have been better for Ranil to contest and lose than support a total outsider in politics like SF who will also be a likely loser.

I too support Ranil. He already demonstrated his capabilities (on the economic, political, and foreign relations front). What he lacked is the grassroots support that MR has been able to consistently count on. Ranil is quite the aristocrat, having won both Kandy and Colombo in the last elections. Unfortunately, the CFA made him lose his credibility among the average Sinhalese voter; it is unlikely he’ll ever regain nearly enough of that to become President. In this context, can we fault the UNP for choosing a populist candidate… even if there were someone with extremely strong credentials, he would most likely be unknown to the average rural voter. While SF has been not in the spotlight to the extent that MR has, practically everyone knows the role he played in the war. Let us not forget that it was the rural South which contributed to the war effort; SF will be able to strike an emotional chord with these people. Ranil simply cannot do this.

What remains for SF is to publicize his agenda. He needs to exploit people’s frustrations with the current regime, and outline his own timely solutions. And finally, he needs to reach out to traditional UNP supporters (most of whom likely consider him too hard-core for their liberal tastes). If we can reach a consensus with them, then Kandy and Colombo will surely be his. I am not sure he will much have following with the minorities, since the recent events of the past are still strongly etched in their minds. This will not be entirely to his detriment however, because the minorities are unlikely to vote for MR either. It just means he will have to contest harder for the South. This is going to be an election decided by the Southern vote.

Observation noted with thanks.

niranjan:

I, too, would have preferred Ranil W and among the devils (I mean politicians) he is of a lesser evil and his international standing and credibility is also commendable but alas in politics there appears little recognition for such traits, and in this instance to the detriment of SL.

“You really do need someone well-educated and well-versed in foreign and public policy… otherwise Sri Lanka is going to continue on the beaten track of promises made by inefficient politico’s – promises which, in time, are never kept.”-
It looks as though SL will continue a downward spiral. Both MR and SF are not suitable for the top job even though MR is popular and is likely to win the Presidential election. Ranil W is the only politician who is well educated and well versed in foreign(accepted internationally) and public policy from the present crop of possible leaders in the country. But then he is not contesting.

Actually I agree with you. My whole argument is based on the premise that there will be low minority voter turnout. The reason I said that was because of the voter turnout in the last local council elections in Jaffna and Vavuniya: 49% in Vavuniya and 18% in Jaffna with the UPFA winning 50% of the Jaffna vote. You can get more detailed info here: http://www.nowpublic.com/world/tamil-tigers-get-boost-srilanka-elections-asia-times

Now this was in August. The mood has probably soured even more since then. Now that the IDPs are free, they are going to “spill the beans” to the rest of the Northern populace about what they went through.

On another note, Mahinda is indeed quite ineffective as a politician. The reason he was able to execute the war so effectively is because he surrounded himself with hardliners of the likes of Gotha and Sarath, and basically curtailed every humanitarian dictum that would have prevented the war machine from rolling onwards. This kind of thinking works just fine in a military setting (some would say, unfortunately), but an experienced politician these days must tread numerous fine lines when forming public policy. He has to know where to concede and when to persist. MR has conceded virtually nothing, except in extreme cases. For example, he is letting the IDPs go free because loss of the GSP facilities would deliver a devastating deathblow to his election prospects. He is letting SF run for Prez because – well because its Sarath. Like you said, maybe the only man in the island right now who can oppose MR (and not find a white van come his way). These have nothing to do with public policy though. Why he hangs on to the Executive Presidency, does not implement the 17th Amendment or APRC recommendations, does not reduce the size of the cabinet, etc. etc. – I think he is just following in the footsteps of CBK. The mindset here is that any meaningful reform will just create opposition to the status quo and thus undermine their “executive” grip on power. To be fair, though, at least CBK engaged in negotiations with the LTTE. I agree that surrounding himself with people like Gotha is sheer folly. From Gotha’s interviews (who is Lasantha!), and his actions (hounding the media, deporting Tamils in Colombo back to their “homeland”) we can see that his character is hardly conducive to any pragmatic political environment. Not only him, but Mervin Silva, Champika Ranawaka, etc. – all handpicked by MR – are out of the control. Hopefully the Southern voter can see that MR’s unwillingness to reign in all these characters is emblematic of his own madness.

I am not sure of SF. While he is clearly “efficient” (I doubt he is the type to start up a Mihin Airlines type venture, or place his family in high positions of power) and honest, he is nevertheless the product of the military. I would think that SL has had enough of the military, what from the JVP times through Prabhakaran’s demise. It has done its job. There is no reason to glorify it further because there is little else it can do (besides fight wars). You really do need someone well-educated and well-versed in foreign and public policy… otherwise Sri Lanka is going to continue on the beaten track of promises made by inefficient politico’s – promises which, in time, are never kept. We need someone capable who can actually implement something despite opposition from his own party (or the Opposition). Whether SF can do this is anyone’s guess – because SF has never been in politics. He has not been a lawyer, neither has he studied political science, nor has he has served in any diplomatic capacity. In short, I question his ability to negotiate effectively… in the military environment, one either gives orders or takes them. He is used to giving orders; whether he can take them is another question altogether.

Churchill was so popular during the war (WW2) but lost out in the election. By this, I am not saying that your analysis is wrong. The chances are the contest will be close with the liberals and the minorities holding the key and this is where, I belief (and I could be wrong too) SF has an edge over MR. Despite the loud and chattering pronouncements of MR of his achievements of the the Mahinda Chintana, save for the victory over the LTTE, he had very blatantly demised the very important of what he promised to do – to discontinue the Ex Presidency and maintain vibrant democratic institutions. Now, for MR, everything is about him with his stooge brothers closely following his heels. Almost everything he did was a farce. The 17th Amendment was foolishly consigned to the cold storage and look at Gotabaya – I did once mentioned that Gotabaya would be MR’s undoing. If MR had some matter in him, he should have placed his trust on the people but when power gets to your head this is what happens. In short, MR is nothing but an opportunistic politician, not the great king he has been decorated as.

Not that I am a great fan of SF – in fact, I detest what he had stood for all this while but the reality is it looks like that he is the only candidate who could MR run for his money. MR had the chance during the last four years – he abused them and should be simply thrown out as any promise now would invoke the memories of his faltering and wavering promises. It is peacetime now and the people come first not MR’s family. I am pretty sure that he will face the fate of Churchill and this may be a warning sign to SF that he can exceed the people’s mandate at his own peril – at the end of the day people will choose and with the sort of split in the southern votes anticipated, this is democracy at best. As for the minorities, show MR that he failed to appreciate and understand that their absence in the polling booths gave him the presidency. MR had the chance – six months after the war to unite the people of SL but he failed, and he failed miserably. Just boot him out or else it will another six years of agony. Not that anyone in SL has not guessed, who do you think MR will prefer to install after his term expires – Basil or Gotabaya or his son?

Pakiasothy S mentioned that the choice is one of between the devil and the deep blue but let us be frank – if SL has to get rid of the mind-set that prevails, hailing MR and his brothers as someone and something royal, then the lead of that sort of thinking should go.