Your analysis re (a) the dynamics of PR; (b) Ranil’s opinion of himself and its consequences; and (c) Ranil’s actual attitude to ethnic conflict resolution, I think, are all absolutely spot on. Which is where I think Publius is being unduly hopeful about the UNP’s capacity to play an effective and desirable role as a parliamentary opposition in Sri Lanka’s democracy.

You are right that Agamemnon laid Troy to waste and carried all before him, but also remember that he returned home to a gruesome death at the hands of his own wife. The point being that Clytemnestra and Orestes may have been thwarted had he had the good sense or humility to listen to Cassandra. The way this government is behaving, the historically closer sense of deja vu is, quite alarmingly, how similar it is to the Premadasa presidency.

all evidence indicate that ranil has a tendency to underestimate his political opponents ( bc his own supposed cleverness for intrigues and plotting) rather than a gift for prophecy.

it happened in 94 when he was pushed out from unp leadership by gamini dissanayake, he failed to topple pa government even when he had the opportunity in 99-00 for some obscure reason and then lost two elections in those years. he won in 01 in spite of himself. and then underestimated cbk in nov 03 to apr 04 which resulted in defeat. he depended too much on tiger’s goodwill to win the 05 election, with the result when they betrayed him, he had no backup plan to get the tamil vote out in government controlled areas as he should have.
too much dependence on one’s cleverness in manipulating political actors ( like mps, parties, ltte etc)is bad in a democracy. in the end it depend on who has the natural ability to influence ( or manipulate if any one here wants to call it that ) the public, the main actor. ranil failed there repeatedly

its a pity bc i always vote for him and do think that his government of 01-03 is one of the best with regard to the economy, if not with regard to conflict with tigers (though his actual position is not clear cut as most ppl in both camps believe)

agamemnon’s hubris! hmm…. at least he won his war. lets hope mahinda wins his too.

Generally one gets the impression that Ranil is not up to much unless it is handed to him on a plate. When he was confronted with take away service during the recent defections, he was just left spluttering.

However he did behave out of character in the months between his election and the LTTE’s withdrawal from talks with his Government. For once, it appeared that the Government had the LTTE on the back foot diplomatically. The LTTE appeared to be panting to keep up with the Government’s swift moves to bring about some normalcy in the country. In the end the LTTE gave up since that diplomacy showed the LTTE do not yet have the capacity to transform themselves into an organisation that can provide responsible representation for the Tamil people.

I’m left wondering whether the UNP has another positive spurt of energy similar to what they had in the early ceasefire days. If they do, it would be a welcome counter to all the negative energy swilling around the current government. The Government may be favourites in the nation at the moment, but that’s little indication of the country’s health. One could have said the same about democratially elected politicians like Hitler in 1933, Thatcher after the Falklands War, SWRD Bandaranaike in 1956 and JR in 1983. However none of them is likely to claim a place in the history books as contributing to a reasonably happy and integrated society.

“Added Wickremesinghe, “All the members who were theoreticians have left. The only practical man in that group is Gamini Lokuge. They all used to come with theories. I also used to act on their theories on the peace process, international relations and the economy. Now they have left with their theory books and come to your side. I can now adopt a practical approach and decide what is best suited for the country, which you too will have no problems with.”

This comment saw Minister Sooriyaarachchi telling Anura Kumara Dissanayake that Wickremesinghe’s comment appeared a “long term talk,” with the JVP member nodding his assent…”

Clearly, Publius is in dream cuckoo land if he thinks his prescriptions for the UNP has any traction with RW’s current thinking, who has retreated to the comforting foothills of the old UNP’s glorification of pragmatism in the face of adversity (see for e.g. this point made by David Rampton & Asanga Welikala in their analysis of Southern politics in the Strategic Conflict Assessment 2005)