Farming in a sustainable, productive manner has been a hallmark of every human tradition that has endured history. There are many traditional farms existent today that have been productive for hundreds of years. Agrarian societies with long histories, posses the credibility of having sustained themselves successfully under the rigor of survival in a natural world. Having no access to fossil fuel driven technologies, they relied on renewable agriculture based upon energy sources internal to that society or region.  Expansion of farming was constrained by the environment and ecosystem of each area. The advent of fossil fuel changed all this.  The gasoline to power tractors, the biocides and fertilizer salts produced by fossil oil enabled agricultural productivity to transcend environmental constraints.

It was not that movement to fossil fuel went unquestioned, when a display of the new ‘ agricultural tractor’ was done in Sri Lanka around 1933. A race was set up between the traditional buffalo drawn plough and the tractor. Of course the tractor won. When asked what the prime minister, the hon. D.S.Senanayake, thought about this machine. He walked around it with great interest and asked the director of the company “ This is truly a wondrous machine sir, but tell me, where is the dung?” He saw, at that time, the Achilles heel of modern agriculture.

The availability of cheap, subsidized energy encouraged increases in productivity. Agriculture began to be seen as effective production oriented breeding programs coupled with seed and input delivery packages.  Genotypes with optimum performance characteristics for high external input agriculture became the standard for agricultural development.  However, the bioaccumulative nature of these inputs were not considered and resulted in many cases of food and environmental contamination. The first public alarms on the nature of there chemicals, were sounded in the 1960’s with the publication of books such as ‘Silent Spring’. People suddenly became conscious of the effect that the ‘new’ agriculture was having on biodiversity and health, workers became aware of the tremendous risk to human health posed by these new chemicals. It was very much this concern that saw the emergence of ‘organic agriculture’ as a system for the production of clean, safe, healthy food.

Organic Farming, arose from this need, ‘to produce clean food and sustain a healthy environment’.  Organic farming, seeks to re-establish the balance that was maintained between farmers and the land for centuries.

In contrast to the observations of decreasing biodiversity and sustainability in monoculture situations, the pattern of increasing ecological stability with increasing diversity in land use is corroborated by studies of traditional land managers, whose management systems are sustainable and conserve a much higher level of biodiversity than conventional responses.  High levels of diversity in the agricultural field produce positive effects of biological control, spread the risk in marketing and production, as well as distributing labor needs to fit with a single family unit.

The traditional Sri Lankan agroecosystems provided ideal models.  Operating in a sustainable manner for millennia they became co-evolved units, supporting and developing the biodiversity element of the natural landscape, to confer sustainability to the production system. Further, the traditional knowledge of rice production encompassed the whole landscape, its impact felt at the Tank (reservoir), the rice field and its supporting elements.  The value and utility of the traditional knowledge base within the Sri Lankan farming community was also well expressed by the farmers themselves, for example Mr. Mudianse Tennekoon of Nikaweratiya. A traditional rice farmer, he was quick to grasp scientific ideas and could relate them to traditional practices. Although he traveled widely and discoursing modern concepts, he was not a ‘scientist’ and his views were ignored.

Further, In a statement to a national meeting of Sri Lankan farmers, supported by the CGIAR and presented for the Mid Term Meeting of the CGIAR to be held in Brasilia in May 1998. Over 300 delegates issued the following statement:

“We, the farmers of Sri Lanka would like to further thank the CGIAR, for taking an interest in us.  We believe that we speak for all of our brothers and sisters the world over when we identify ourselves as a community who are integrally tied to the success of ensuring global food security.  In fact it is our community who have contributed to the possibility of food security in every country since mankind evolved from a hunter-gather existence.  We have watched for many years, as the progression of experts, scientists and development agents passed through our communities with some or another facet of the modern scientific world.  We confess that at the start we were unsophisticated in matters of the outside world and welcomed this input.  We followed advice and we planted as we were instructed.  The result was a loss of the varieties of seeds that we carried with us through history, often spanning three or more millennia.  The result was the complete dependence of high input crops that robbed us of crop independence.  In addition we farmers producers of food, respected for our ability to feed populations, were turned into the poisoners of land and living things, including fellow human beings.  The result in Sri Lanka is that we suffer from social and cultural dislocation and suffer the highest pesticide related death toll on the planet.  Was this the legacy that you the agricultural scientists wanted to bring to us?  We think not.  We think that you had good motives and intentions, but left things in the hands of narrowly educated, insensitive people.”

In this context, it is sobering to reflect on a favorite quote of the Hon D.S.Senanayake:

“ Agriculture is not merely a way of making money by raising crops; it is not merely an industry or a business; it is essentially a public function or service performed by private individuals for the care and use of the land in the national interest: and the farmers in the course of securing a living and a private profit are custodians of the basis of national life. Agriculture is therefore affected with a clear and unquestionable public interest ….”

However, the goals of modern agriculture discount this public function, based on the premise that the main goal of agriculture is productivity increase, has created a plethora of problems that bedevil all of humanity. The most significant of which are, a loss of sustainability, a loss of biodiversity, a loss of independence, a loss of traditional knowledge and a loss in nutrient breadth. We need a new paradigm in agriculture.

The current developments in agriculture in Sri Lanka run completely contrary to the vision of our founding fathers, contrary to the farmers voice and contrary to scientific knowledge of the impact of agrotoxins on our population. Driven by greed for profits, public interest has been forgotten. In a rejection of the needs of humanity, poisons are sold as agricultural panaceas. In the rejection of a need to become self-sufficient we are being made ever more dependent on external inputs, in a rejection of national needs huge tracts of native forest and handed over to persons and corporations, to be raped and poisioned. The future looks bleak.

Much of the traditional rice agroecosystem has disappeared to pave way for new varieties and management measures. The quantity of toxins sprayed into the environment began to increase and the component of fossil energy in our agricultural production continues to rise. The grim reality of fossil energy based agricultural production is that the price of energy will continue to rise. In order to respond, agricultural productivity should be planned for transitioning towards optimal production with little or no external inputs. Organic Agriculture, Traditional Agriculture and Ecological Agriculture are all approaches to agriculture that have lowered the need for external energy and will benefit the farming community as well as the consumer. A well-planned national program can contribute greatly to a move towards agricultural sustainability.

It is in the context of such a history, that we must address the need to change the current suicidal trend of agriculture in Sri Lanka: As a component of a new paradigm of agricultural development.  There are four critical and fundamentally important goals

1. Reduce the reliance of external inputs to maintain agricultural productivity
2. Increase crop value through better market access
3. Increase the biodiversity of agroecosystems
4. Reduce the threat of non-communicable diseases for the population of Sri Lanka (est. 74% adults in 2011).

If future agriculture aspires to such goals, it is possible to contribute effectively towards sustainable development.   All investment in agriculture should be required adhere to or respect these goals.  This will facilitate the manifestation of a national vision.

A vision is not a set of economic policies that assist in the growth of the global economic system nor should it be an excuse for business or politics to increase their capital. A vision is something that can be shared not only among us but also with the future, a future that can judge the realization of the vision with each passing day.

A land where the rivers flow clean.

A land where its citizens can breathe the air without being poisoned

A land where food security is the cornerstone of development

A land where the wellbeing of the poorest is a national priority

A land where health, education and mobility are vital indicators of progress.

A land where parents are given the opportunity of raising their children without fear.

A land where the values of its people and their traditions are recognized and defended

A land where local business is not penalized in order to attract foreign capital.

A land where ethnic or religious differences do not constitute a barrier to national progress and nor create social tensions

However, national goals such as these are not time bound.  An individual acceptance of the need of such goals are the only thing required, the process to achieve it may take its time depending on how fast these goals achieve public acceptance.

Farming in Sri Lanka is at a crossroads, do we see it merely an industry or a business or is it an essential public function?  If it is also a public function, it must work with the component biodiversity of farms to further the aims of providing humanity with clean, healthy food while at the same time contributing to the goals set out in international conventions such as the CBD, CSD and Kyoto protocol. The standards set for the management of on farm biodiversity must resist the degradation of farm landscapes into broadacre monocultures by maintaining diverse, mixed, production systems, which also provides answers for the current crises brought about by climate change.

• Agricultural Madness
• Subsidizing Addiction?
• Right to Food: Ecologically based agriculture
• De-globalisation: A paradigm for sustainable development?
• Accountability and Universal Values in Development

The map above identifies the main flood-affected regions, sites where relief and rescue operations have been conducted, areas prone to landslides and specific locations that are at risk.  Please click on the link below the map to view it on a larger screen. You may click on individual markers for detailed information and zoom in to view the location of specific shelter camps located in the east. Please note that this map is updated as soon as the Editors of Groundviews receive detailed information and reports from the ground.

After our last updated post on 12 January 2011, a Daily Mirror SMS update at 12:50PM reported that there were 21 deaths and over 1,000,000 people affected as a result of the floods and bad weather that continues to devastate these regions. The Eastern Province is the worst affected with over 860,000 flood victims according to the latest figures released by the Disaster Management Centre. There have been widespread reports that it has become increasingly difficult to access specific areas due to submerged or damaged roads and the prevailing weather conditions in the North Central Province and the Eastern Province. The Director General of Disaster Management Centre stated the following in a news report published by the Daily Mirror,

Batticaloa District is worst hit by the floods with 533,000 people belonging to 30,264 families have been displaced. He said eight deaths have been reported from the district and 225 displaced camps have been set up in the district.

He said the district is experiencing a rainfall of 113mm/day continuously (Emphasis ours.) Yesterday it had been 200mm. Major General Hettiarachchi said two air force helicopters had been deployed to distribute relief and to rescue the affected people but they could not be taken off the ground due to bad weather yesterday as well.

More than 200 tanks have been extensively damaged while nearly 20,000 acres of paddy land were also destroyed.

Overall 996,757 people have been affected by the floods with 1727 houses have been fully destroyed while 12,151 have been partly destroyed. Total numbers of deaths stood at 18 while 49 were injured as at yesterday afternoon. Some 52, 391 families who have been displaced have been housed in 502 camps.

The Daily Mirror notes that Health Minister Maithripala Sirisena has informed “officials about the necessity to repair the submerged roads as early as possible as it has hampered the relief supply to flooded areas in the country.”

We now face a real threat of severe food shortages due to the complete destruction of over 130,000 acres of paddy field. Agriculture Minister Lakshman Yapa Abeywardhana stated the following to the Daily Mirror,

“There is no doubt that we need an advanced strategy to face the food crisis that is inevitable. We can have a better picture only after the flood waters have fully receded. Therefore, we cannot say what kind of response we have to the crisis right now. What I can assure is that the government is going to face this with resolve and people must be prepared to it.”

Over a quarter of Sri Lanka is currently under water and 40 per cent of cultivated areas are submerged according to the Minister of Agriculture.

Update at 14:26PM: The death toll is now at 23.

Update on 15/01/11 at 4:13PM via JNW SMS update: “Total 1,053,718 persons affected by floods. 3744 houses fully damaged and 19,534 partially damaged. 37 deaths with 18 in Batticaloa – DMC – JNW.”

###

HOW TO HELP

The Editors of Groundviews appeal to all our readers to assist in any way possible and to spread the word. For more information on how to help the victims of flood-affected areas, please visit our previous post here.

• Google map on flood-affected areas in Sri Lanka – February 2011
• On Flooding and Disaster Management
• UPDATE: Situation report on flood-affected areas and a call for assistance
• First images: The flooding in Menik Camp and the increasingly dire situation for IDPs
• Abandoned War Displaced People From Border Villages

All elections are important and these will be no exception. It is worth reminding that we are still in a post-war situation and far from the post-conflict one we ought to be in. What this requires is the prioritization of peace, reconciliation and unity and the firm commitment to ensure that the causes of ethnic conflict are not reproduced and sustained.  This means at least the rights of the IDPs as the litmus test for all else, a political settlement of the conflict and a reversal of the culture of impunity in respect of human rights along with facing up to the questions of whether there can be unity without reconciliation and reconciliation without accountability.  This is not all.  There are serious questions to be considered on the economic front with regard to employment and indebtedness – the real consequences of the fate of GSP Plus and the IMF loan – and most importantly in light of recent demonstrations, the ability of the system of education to meet the requirements of the economy.  And given Angulana, what happened to Nipuna Ratnayake and the Bambalapitiya drowning, the overarching issues of the Rule of Law, the supremacy of Constitution and the intentional violation of the Seventeenth Amendment.

Constitutional reform, at least in terms of the abolition or reform of the executive presidency will be on the agenda, as a consequence not so much of the requirements of governance but the emerging imperatives of regime survival and stability.  There is the danger that on this score, what is in store is the abolition of the form and title of the executive presidency with the transfer of its substantive powers to an “executive prime minister”.   The electoral system too, could be up for debate with the virtues of the ‘first-past –the post’ system and constituency MPs being eulogized to discredit proportional representation.

There is a crying need for a national debate on the future of the country and the issues on which the next presidential and general elections are to be fought.  The challenges ahead are far too serious to treat these elections merely as opportunities to register electoral approval, appreciation, admiration and gratitude for the defeat of the LTTE.  There has to be a tomorrow and a time when the war is truly behind us.  We need a plan to move towards that time and in order to design one, as many of us as willing and able must be part of that process.  An agenda for change and reform is critically needed and it will not come from the politicians who are trapped in fighting yesterday’s battles.

The island wide debate, discussion or conversation on change and reform is a vital and integral part of this.  Where however, through or on what medium or channel or site can it be conducted?

The obvious answer is the mainstream print and electronic media.  For a variety of reasons, very real and crucial constraints ranging from official displeasure, threat and sanction to self censorship, ideological disposition, market demands and problems of professionalism, the robust exchange of ideas called for will not happen here and not beyond the efforts of a persistent few, as required.  Moreover, since it is an exchange of ideas – a discussion, debate or conversation- that is called for, many voices need to he heard.  This is not about letters to the editor, about comment and observation alone but about participation and engagement with passion and conviction about the Sri Lanka of the future, we desire and deserve.

Citizens’ journalism and given its record as a forum for quality debate, Groundviews is ideally positioned to make a major contribution to this exercise in national rejuvenation and renaissance.  Is it not possible in the lead up to the elections that citizens use Groundviews to canvass their ideas for constitutional reform, governance, human rights and the economy and whatever else they see as constituting essential elements of an agenda for change and reform? The exchange could, but need not be time bound. As in the nature of a conversation it should be ongoing and active.

This would be a convincing demonstration of the strength and value of citizens’ journalism and its substantial utility in empowerment for peace, governance and human rights – An enabling facility for a functioning democracy.

• Abolition or reform of Executive Presidency in Sri Lanka?
• In conversation with Dr. Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu
• In conversation with Dr. Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu
• 1,000 posts on Groundviews: Bearing witness, shaping peace
• Strange proposals and broken promises: Constitutional reform in Sri Lanka

The strap of my bag unbuckled under the strain as I squeezed out of the bus in Kurunegala. The clock tower read an unrushed 6.40 am on its weary face. It was quite possibly a relic from the Premadasa era, bearing testament to a President who erected large clocks in many city centres and villages, subtle messages about punctuality woven into a fabric of ageless and often useful, chaos. I checked my wrist watch, because the clock face that looked over the sleepy town looked too burdened to be reliable. If the train was on time, I had forty minutes to get to the railway station which I knew couldn’t be too far.

Struggling to buckle the strap, I went into the nearest shop to ask for directions. “It’s that way, you won’t miss it”. The little I knew about Kurunegala town was enough to give me confidence that I had all the information needed to walk to the station in time. As I stepped out on to the road, I realised that I may have left my cap in the car when my father dropped me – sleepy eyed and still jet lagged – at the central bus-stand in Kandy an hour and forty minutes ago. It seemed like I was going to miss it a lot.

Walking to the station through the light mist, trying to read the faces of over worked strangers on a regular Monday morning, I resisted the temptation to take a three-wheeler. Busses limped past me on all fours, saturated and overflowing with white uniforms, heavy schoolbags, briefcases and flowery saris – battle fatigues of sorts I thought. I called Shazard to make sure that they were on the train and that the train itself was on track. Time has also steadily eroded the Railways. Over years of being one of its loyal customers, the Railway Department had taught me to expect its services to be reliably late and not to take such minor blessings for granted.

What if we missed the train or never even volunteered to dedicate a week of our time and energy to help out at the camps? We had no grand illusions about what we were trying to achieve or contribute. I could not believe that my efforts were going to make a noticeable difference as far as the plight of the refugees was concerned, because in my absence there would have been plenty of others to take this place. But I hoped that our presence there on the other hand would register in the eyes of at least a few of the estranged Tamil Sri Lankans there that fellow countrymen in the south – especially the Sinhalese – cared for them. They needed to know – or at least think – that we at least acknowledge what they were going through and that we would act and do what we can to make a difference. We hoped it would personify a more meaningful expression of a message of national unity and patriotism that was being preached from high platforms. While the notion that forces of evil in this country have been defeated was being celebrated with fireworks and parties, this was a personal acknowledgement on our part, of the hard work that lie ahead of us to actually make that part of the present reality and future hopes.

Perhaps we needed to do something – if only to convince ourselves that we have done ‘something’. Even though we have all been brutalised by the violence and horrors of war, demonstrating that we still had a capacity to empathise and care would make us feel better. Maybe we were guided by our moral obligation to serve. Despite having lived under the clouds of war, I have never been exposed to the downpour of its terror and violent images. Now the war was over and this was a fleeting chance to catch the last glimpse of what it was all about. I had read about the psychological implications of war and violence on society and tried to understand how soldiers are trained and prepare for battle. I have tried to understand what they experience on the battlefield and afterwards. Survivors or war have had little time to write about it and the stories of the victims will forever be silent. I felt intellectually and morally obliged to hear the silent stories and find out for myself what so many around me were speaking about with unquestioned authority. I felt obliged as a Sri Lankan, to find out and share in whatever way I could – the experiences of so many of my own countrymen and women who has known this war as a fact of daily life. Their lives have so far been so very distant from my own.

The train was indeed on its way and a stranger assured me in his haste that I was making good time to get on it.

• Whose “bomb” is it anyway?
• What must it be like to live behind these Kovil gates?
• A night in war time …
• Living in a very small world: and dying to have a piece of it
• An encounter in Puttlam: Peace as seen by two youth who served in the Army

I took these photos in Dambulla. Today, on a day we celebrate Human Rights, I hope we spare a thought for thousands of children in Sri Lanka who have been affected by the conflict. 

• The untold story of a child
• Whiter justice? – The killing of Thillainayagam Theeban
• No respite even after war: The rape, execution, torture and disappearances of IDPs in Sri Lanka
• Capturing HOPE in Sri Lanka through photography
• Misguided cultural policing in Sri Lanka: Where’s the morality amongst politicians?

The United People’s Freedom Party (UPFA) claimed its second consecutive provincial electoral victory on the 24^th of August by winning a clear majority of seats in the North Central and Sabaragamuwa Province.  This election was more competitive than the previous Eastern Provincial Council election,  where the government managed to get the Tamil and Muslim votes by  their crafty handling of Pillayan and Hisbulla.  Unlike in the Eastern province, the government contested in the North Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces with relatively unpopular politicians and more importantly on a platform where the opposition politicians too enjoyed almost equal access to votes. However, election results proved that the desperate United National Party, has once again failed to shake up  the electoral support of the ruling coalition despite introducing new celebrities for the chief ministerial  candidacy. The third party that secured a representation in these provincial councils, the JVP  is experiencing the bitter truth of politics; the government that they brought into power is now gunning them down mercilessly.  However, more than about the winners and losers this election has given us a glimpse into electoral politics: This election puzzled the political observers with its odd relationship between election violence and the high voter turn out. Further the results of the Provincial Councils reiterate the fact that Provincial Council elections do not provide a mechanism to hold regional policy makers accountable but rather reflect the support for the centre. Thirdly, this election results confirm that under the PR system there is  less opportunity for the smaller parties and independent groups even at the regional level. This election also highlighted the JVPs true electoral strength by denouncing the third force myth that had currency for sometime ever since the JVP’s 2004 electoral performance. Last but not  least, the outcome of this election sends a strong message to the government to change its track from Provincial Council elections to parliamentary elections.

 

Elections and citizen participation

A friend of mine once shared an interesting personal experience that he had had as a returning officer of a polling booth in a Colombo suburb.  He had found six people standing at the gate of the school where the polling booth was located two hours before the booth was opened.  My friend had asked them to leave the place and come back once the booth opened especially  since some of the officials were still not out of their beds at that time.  Interestingly, an angry old man from the crowd refused to leave the place, because he though that it was a ploy to break  his un broken record of casting the first vote in that village.  This signifies how, for some, voting is more of a ritual and civic responsibility than a democratic right and means of holding politicians accountable. Places like schools and temples where polling booths are usually located also may have contributed to the cultivation of this notion amongst the people.

In a representative democracy, elections provide a means through which citizens can choose their representatives to the office and more importantly it provides an opportunity to evaluate the performance of their representative. Therefore, regular elections are a good indication of strong democracies. However, it is doubtful that everyone who participates in an election has this objective in mind when casting their vote.  

 

Election violence and its outcome

In order to ensure the accountability of the Governors regular election are essential, but holding elections only would not suffice unless all parties are allowed to compete on an equal ground and the citizens are give an opportunity to make their choice with out fear.  Especially the ruling party who have unprecedented access to government resources that is usually misused for their own political advantage at election time. This is a common practice among all parties when they are holding office. Therefore, usually elections are not held on equal ground. It is in this context, that the role of independent election monitoring groups become vital. These monitors won’t be able to stop election malpractices completely but can contribute to minimizing violence by playing the role of the watchdog.

According to the press release from the Centre for Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV), in the run-up to the election there had been 127 incident of election violence in NCP and 110 in Sabaragamuwa. On Election Day, violence had been less than anticipated and limited to 22 in NPC and 20 in Sabaragamuwa.  This sudden decline in violence and the relatively high voter turn out is widely being used to justify that the election has been free and fair. Can we take the election turn out as a strong indicator to claim that the election was free and fair?  The following table shows a comparison of  election related violence incidents reported by the CMEV and voter turn out at the Wayamba Provincial Council election in 1999 -considered to be the one of the most violent provincial council elections  - with the 23^rd August  2008 election.  According to the statistics we see that both the voter turn out and election violence is higher in the 1999 Wayamba election. This shows that the voter turn out is not linearly and exclusively correlated to the level of violence at the election, but is a more nuanced and complex scenario. Therefore, the present argument that the higher voter turn out observed  in the recent elections as an indication of free elections is miles away from the truth. 

 

One should not ignore the fact that violence does not necessarily mean  spontaneous and sporadic violence, they can also be systematically and carefully manipulated to disrupt only the electorate of the competitor. It is not something new to politicians as it is almost understood that whoever is in power always monopolizes the violence and realizes the importance of violence free elections when they have to sit in the opposition benches. 

 

Mandate for the Centre?

The second important factor highlighted in this election was that representatives were elected in the region to give a mandate to the centre. During the election campaign all the government ministers who took part in addressing election rallies clearly asked people to support the president’s war against the LTTE by voting for the UPFA. Even after wining the election the Chief Ministerial prospects and the President described their electoral victory as an approval of the government’s military campaign.

If this is how the  government wants people to vote at the Provincial Council elections, then there is a serious flaw on the government’s  understanding of devolution of power and its use of the 13th Amendment as a means to find a political solution to the ethnic conflict.

The Provincial Council system was introduced to provide greater control to the regions over matters relevant to the provinces. Therefore, people should find Provincial Councils closer than the central government and should be able to influence regional policies effectively. In this context the Provincial Council elections are a very important mechanism for the people of those regions, as it allows them to evaluate the performance of their regional and provincial leaders and exert pressure on them to demand greater accountability. Hence, this election should be seen as a greater tool  to build  the democratic process to counter the deficits of democracy such as corruption, wastage and other  such malpractices.  

However, I think the government is right in interpreting the results of the Provincial Council election as a mandate to the centre. Because, although the majority of the people in these two provinces have chosen the UPFA, they did not indicate the same support for the chief ministerial candidates of the government. Instead Janaka Perera and Ranjan Ramanayake, national celebrities from out side of the respective provinces, were given more preferential votes. What does this mean? This is a clear sign of the backward walk of the Provincial Council system.

Therefore, this is a clear sign that in the minds of the government the Provincial council will hardly be a stepping stone to greater devolution of political power. Instead it would most probably function as an intermediary  administrative layer with more institutional authority that merely decentralize the deficit of democracy, rather than decentralizing political power.  Therefore, this election once again vindicates that professor Vitharana ‘s APRC is something limited to a café that only caters to appease foreign concerns exclusively. Perhaps that may be the reason why K.M Narayan- the  Indian defense advisor – also felt that though the government is defeating the LTTE it is far from eliminating them.

 

Small parties and JVP

The third factor one can observe from the electoral outcome at this election is the plight of the small parties. The PR system was introduced on the premise that it would give more space for the smaller parties, especially the ones that represent the ethnic minorities to be elected to the policy making body.  However, this election’s results prove otherwise.  Over 90% of the votes in these two provinces are distributed between the UPFA and UNP.

Even though there were several small parties and independent groups taking part in this election, none managed to obtain at least 1% of the votes. This raises a serious concern over the electoral process.  Though political science theorists like Arend Lijphart argued that PR gives more opportunities for marginalized groups, due to other deficits of the PR system what we see today is that it has strengthened the national parties even at the regional level. Perhaps that is why people like Dietrrich Rueschemeyer argued in his essay on equality, that the actors with more wealth and cultural capital have disproportionate power to shape the citizen’s policy preference.   To campaign across the district of over half a million people you need a goldmine when compared to the resourses need to campaign in a small electorate that houses less than ten percent of the district. Therefore, there is hardly any chance for an independent and relatively less wealthy  candidate to promote  him /herself across an entire district.

In this context, this article would not be complete if it does not discuss the electoral performance of the JVP. This election must have been a bitter experience even more than they could have ever imagined possible. On the one hand, this must have added ‘more salt’ to their raw wounds than the Weerawansa  defection caused. On the other hand once again it proved that the JVP is far from being the third force in Sri Lankan politics. The following table highlights the JVP’s electoral performance at the local government and provincial council elections  where they contested alone.

Electoral achievement of JVP at the District level by contesting alone

 

According to the above table, it is clear that the JVP  voter base has always been 5% to 10%  and not more than that. However, the electoral outcome of the 2004 election where for the first time the JVP managed to win the 39 seats in the parliamentary election  gave an exaggerated calculation of it’s real electoral strength. In fact, not only the outsiders but also the JVP leaders themselves miscalculated their own strength as some even claimed that they are ready to be the second political force in the country. 

As a result of the electoral coalition and thanks to the preferential voting system, some district leaders even managed to score the highest popular votes in their respective districts in 2004 .  But during the 2006 election for Local Authorities and the 2008 Provincial Councils election, by contesting alone, the JVP could win only 6% of those districts. 

As a cardre based party the JVP hardly has any option other than to accept the reality and confine itself to pressure politics. Otherwise, as JNP suggested recently, the JVP need to strip its cardre based politics and attempt to transform itself into a mass based party by forming a greater coalition with larger political force. This means that the JVP will have to seek some electoral alliance either with the Rajapakse government by putting aside it differences or make a more drastic transition to form a coalition with its all-time enemy, the capitalist UNP.  However, it is highly unlike that the present leadership of the JVP will make that move.

Even though the reaction of the JVP is not clear, the JHU and the JNP, parties with a Sinhalese voter base won’t ever attempt to contest alone. The leaders of these parties will attempt to hold onto the ruling party while being critical of some of its policies. This will only assure the political career of some individuals in these small parties rather than the survival of the party itself.

 

Changing the Itinerary?

Not only for the small parties but also for the government, these elections provide valuable insight. This election hints of the potential danger for the UPFA in continuing these Provincial Council elections as a means of mobilizing the electorate for the general election.  The government called the elections of these two provinces solely on the assumption that they can be won comfortably. But the election outcome suggests that even after exploiting the public office and banking on the progress made on the war front  they could not showcase an exceptional performance in these two provinces. In the case  of contesting for Provincial Councils that are advantageous for the main opposition, UNP, would be dangerous for their future parliamentary election victory. Because, if the UNP wins an elections before the general election it will set a momentum for he UNP by disturbing the government’s wave of victories.  On the other hand, the government can not afford to go for Provincial Council elections campaigning solely on the basis of their war record indefinitely. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the government will concentrate on its provincial election map in the future.  It is more likely that they would call for general election, when the forces arrive at Killinochchi’s doorsteps.   

• Provincial Council Elections 2008/2009: Nominations for and representation of women
• Brotherhood Bloodshed Again?
• Suggestion to the Select Committee on Electoral Reform
• The loud and clear message from the voter turnout and the voters in the North and East
• Provincial Election Campaign: Battling for the Centre?

In the wake of numerous interpretations and reinterpretation of the present political situation as a result of the recent crossover by the political elites, the authors of this article attempt to discuss how citizens perceive the crossover. The results of the latest poll, that was conducted by Social Indicator – Centre for Policy Alternatives are used to discuss the public views in this article. This survey was conducted amongst 1300 individuals residing in 17 districts using the interview technique. It should be noted that this survey was conducted Islandwide with the exception of the North & East and therefore does not capture the opinion of the Sri Lankan Tamil community.

Who’s hurt the most: UNPers or JVPers
Despite the justifying rationales put forward by the MPs who have crossed over, the present political accusations and counter accusations indicate that the crossover has hurt many parties who lost their MPs as well as who lost their political positions. If we were to look at the UNP itself, it lost a group of heavy weights including its deputy leader as a result of the recent crossover. Also it led the opposition leader Mr. Wickramasinghe to a new battle in order to retain the opposition leadership from the JVP; a party that has shown a remarkable capacity in mobilizing the masses against any ruling party. The present government too, is faced with issues resulting from the crossover. President Rajapakse’s main electoral ally, the JVP, permanently walked into the opposition while vowing to topple the Government, accusing the government of going against the electoral mandate, it received in November 2005. Not only that, but this parliamentarian exodus triggered a battle between the president and the two ministers, Mr. Mangala Samaraweera and Mr. Sripathi Suriarachchi, who have done tremendous work in bringing President Mahinda Rajapakse into office. On one hand the crossovers shook the status quo of the government while on the other hand it annulled the memorandum of understanding signed between the SLFP and the UNP even before its ink dried up. In addition, this disappointed the groups who were optimistic and overjoyed about the rare opportunity of a southern consensus.

The disapproval of the crossover is highest amongst the JVP loyalists – 68% disapprove while 15% approve of it. Perhaps this could be a reflection of the feeling of humiliation that they are undergoing after the SLFP sidelined them ignoring the crucial role they performed at the elections. Amongst the UNPers, only 48% disapprove of its own party members crossing to the SLFP while 34% of them could not decide whether to approve or disapprove of it. However, 18% of the UNPers approve the crossover. While on one hand this reflects the frustration of the UNPers with their leadership on the party reforms, on the other hand this is a clear indication of the confused status of the UNPers in the aftermath of losing a group of the most senior members of the party. Interestingly, this survey does not indicate that the SLFPers are over-jubilant about the newly captured elephant herd. This is apparent as only 50% of them approve of the crossover while 30% disapprove.

Crossover for Democracy or Vise Versa:
In the present electoral system, more primacy has been given to the parties than to the MPs. When selecting candidates for an election, most members are at the mercy of the party leaders. Even after being elected to the parliament, MPs will have to support the party decision rather than acting on their conscience. In this context, MPs do not have much option other than crossing over to another party that allows them to voice the concerns of their communities or adhere to one’s conscience. Therefore, MPs crossing over to another party can be considered as an expression of democracy that one may want to practice. This was not the first time where MPs crossed over to another party in the parliament and neither, we suppose, the last time. However, when analyzing the history of crossing over, usually it has been the opposition MPs who crossover to the ruling party instead of otherwise. Some get cabinet portfolios with other privileges while others allegedly receive huge sums of money. Therefore, it is very difficult to decide whether it is principle or perks that matter when deciding to crossover.

It is interesting see on what grounds people have approved or disapproved of the recent MP drain from the opposition to the ruling party. Amongst the people who approve of the recent crossover, 50% think that the move strengthens the Government and the President while 24% think that it would help the Government’s present war with the LTTE. Only 6% approve of the crossover on the basis that it is an expression of democracy. Interestingly, more SLFP loyalists than UNP loyalists approve of the recent crossover as it strengthens the Government and the president. Nevertheless, even for UNPers who support the crossover, the main reason for their approval is that it strengthens the Government and the president.

Amongst the people who disapprove of the recent crossover, 46% disapprove on the basis that it adds a bigger burden to the public due to the the increased number of ministerial posts. However, 9% disapprove on the basis that it damages democracy while 7% and 6% reject the crossover as it goes against the ‘Mahinda Chinthanaya’ and as it will lead to the abrogation of the SLFP- UNP MOU, respectively. It is interesting to see the varying reasons on which different party loyalists disapprove of the recent crossover. The primary reason for the SLFP and UNP loyalists to disapprove of the crossover is the fact that this will become a bigger burden for the already suffering Sri Lankans. However, JVP loyalists who disapprove of the crossover seem to have two main arguments. They think this is a clear violation of the ‘Mahinda Chinthanaya’ that they successfully advocated during the presidential elections and that the large number of present ministerial posts would (will?) increase the burden on the citizens. 29% of JVPers see the recent crossover as against the ‘Mahinda Chinthanaya’, while only 9% of SLFPers think that way.

Hence, when looking at the rationales for approvals and disapprovals, it seems that it is based on three arguments, namely forming a national government, waste of public funds and betraying the mandate received for the ‘Mahinda Chinthanaya’. According to Mr. Karu Jayasuriya, his motive of crossing over was the dire need to join the two main parties in the South, in order to solve the ethnic conflict and establish good governance. When analyzing the (often vague) interviews of President Rajapakse in the wake of the crossover, it seems that both the President and Mr. Jayasuriya are trying to voice that they have the same objectives. If it is the case we do not think anyone would disagree with such a noble objective. Nevertheless, unfortunately what we see in the government today does not reflect the stated objectives.

If the recent cross over means to assist the Government in solving the protracted ethnic conflict, then the Government must be keen on a negotiated settlement on the basis of a federal structure, because, the heavy weights of the reformists who crossed over were the individuals who led the UNP Government’s peace process that insisted on a solution within a federal united Sri Lanka. However, having had their cabinet portfolios, they have not yet shown any active engagement in such activities. Therefore, Minister Thissa Vitharana has to be engaged in a solo battle at the APRC, in bringing forward a constitutional transformation. Given the SLFP’s negative stand on the CFA and the passive commitment to constitutional arrangement, it is not clear what the role of UNP reformist is in transforming SLFPers to perceive for the federal solution that has been agreed in the Oslo Communique in 2003.

Given the wastage of public funds in maintaining the large number of ministries, which was the primary result of the crossover and the prevailing impunity that has high potential to worsen in months to come, do not show a rosy picture on good governance that Mr. Rajapakse and Mr. Jayasuriya are dreaming about. Therefore, the rationales given as the basis for the crossover are difficult for people to stomach.

However, it is undeniable that this recent crossover has made President Rajapakse stronger – a personage whose popularity is anyway on the boom in the context of the recent military victory in the East. Therefore, we believe President Rajapakse enjoys a stronger political position, empowering him to make drastic political decisions in order to solve the country’s ethnic conflict even if he is unable to clean the office of corrupt officials and politicians.

Therefore, in next few months public can witness the real impact of the cross over on the Sri Lankan society and how distance the reality from the claimed motives of the UNP reformists.

Authors:
Pradeep Peiris and Rangani Ranasinghe are researchers of the Social Indicator, the survey research unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives.

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