Social Indicator, the survey research unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives conducted an island wide pre election opinion poll with the objective of identifying Sri Lankan voter perceptions and attitudes on key topics being discussed in the lead up to the election and thereby contribute to the current political discourse.

Only 4 % of Sri Lankans believe that the 2015 General Election will not be free and fair and 66.9% believe that it will be.

When asked about who they think is best suited to be the Prime Minister of Sri Lanka, majority from the Tamil (62.3%), Up Country Tamil (71.1%) and Muslim (62.3%) communities said Ranil Wickremesinghe, with less than 2% from each community saying that it should be Mahinda Rajapaksa. Opinion in the Sinhala community is divided, with 36% saying that it should be Mahinda Rajapaksa and 31.9% saying Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Sri Lankans are divided on the question about whether former President Mahinda Rajapaksa should be contesting in the upcoming General Elections. 40% of Sri Lankans say that the former President should contest while 42% say that he should not contest.

The key issues that Sri Lankans believe the next Parliament should address are employment and employment opportunities for youth, reduction in the cost of living, accelerating the development of the country and improving the education system.

The three most important characteristics that Sri Lankans look for in a candidate are what that candidate has done for the country (19.4%), education (17.5%) and that they are not corrupt (15.6%). For almost 50% of Sri Lankans it is extremely important that the candidates they plan on voting for have declared their assets while 18.5% say that it is somewhat important for them.

59% of Sri Lankans say that the information they get from the media influences how they vote, while 29.6% say that it does not.

Conducted in the 25 districts of the country, this opinion poll captured the opinion of 1986 Sri Lankans from the four main ethnic groups. Fieldwork was conducted from the 22 – 29 July 2015.

Click here to read the full report.

GE 2015 infographic 1_final GE 2015 infographic 2_final

  • Kusal Perera

    Seems the survey reflects the general trend. Yet what’s not been highlighted is the perception of the society on the political solution to the ethnic conflict. Do they believe the country needs a political solution or do they now think with the end of war and end of LTTE there is no conflict to be solved?
    Also, it would be important to see how the Sinhala urban middle class and the ordinary Sinhala rural voter see elections and what they expect from the next government.

    • puniselva

      Do.

  • Independent

    If 31.9:36 proportional opinion division is true, it is 47% 53% popularity among Sinhalese. 65% to 35% among others is a little surprising, I thought is like 85% 15% split. Based on conservative estimation of 65:35 minority and 47: 53 majority votes basis it become 52% voters prefer Ranil and 48% MR. This appears to be close. Nevertheless this is not a Presidential election and seat winning ability could be different to this.

    • Mohan

      Valid point sir

      If you read the full report. Rail is winning in provinces with large number seats. Which can be interpreted as more than 50 percent seats. MR will get minimum 60.

    • Toromale

      Minority votes will be split this time with TNA and UNP. Hence Tamil minority votes will be favoring TNA with 65% and UNP 35%. If MR s 53% of the Sinhalese votes and 35% of the minority votes UPFA will take 10-11 districts with 90-93 polling divisions. Seats are allocated based on the following formula Polling visions with 51% or more votes + Bonus seats in winning districts with 51%+ National seats based on the national voter %. In this case if we take the low values winning 90 polling divisions+ bonus seats 11 (some districts have 2 seats) + National seats 29*48 = 14. If you add all that 115. If you take the high 93+15+14 = 122. Even based on this poll UPFA will is at an advantage. This is battle between UNP lead by RW and UPFA lead MR and TNA. In a 3 way battle UNP always loses. This has been last 21 years. UPFA lead by MR will take 115 to 122 seats.

      • Sas

        You are delusionall if you think UPFA can take more than 100 seats

  • Ceylon Shiping

    seems quite right, yet I do not believe maniac MR will get that much, he and his family can’t fool young generation anymore

    • willie fernando

      your words describes your mind. MR must rise up to clean your ill will.