Can Sri Lanka propose a New Growth Paradigm?
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The discussion on ‘ Economic Development’ as a national goal, must demonstrate a perspective strongly rooted in modern science. However, the goals of today suggest that our appreciation of the scientific method of evaluation is a little short. Nevertheless, it is hoped that Sri Lanka’s contribution at the Rio + 20 and at other international conventions thatdiscuss the common future of mankind can propose something innovative rather than the mediocre dribble of the past. Having been party to these processes, the probability of a repetition of past mediocrity is great. Thus in the interest of the profile of this nation and in the interest of a benign future for our children, the following reasoning is advanced. One hopes that the Sri Lankan delegates to the various international conventions this year will raise the need to ‘value photosynthetic biomass’ at all plenary sessions as a national contribution.
Life on Earth learnt how to maintain gas and material flows, optimum for the evolution and sustainability of biodiversity. Carbon Dioxide, although essential to the process of life, was often introduced into the atmosphere by volcanic processes at disruptive levels, throughout geologic history. But the gas has not concentrated in the atmosphere, because it was sequestered by living things and put away out of circulation from the biosphere of living carbon, so that the environment was stable for life. This store of carbon was fossilized and has been slowly accumulating over the last few hundred million years and has acted as the storage of excess carbon.
In our rush to create the new petroleum and coal driven economy, this very simple and fundamental fact has been ignored. Carbon that cycles through living systems represents a fixed proportion of the planetary carbon, one part solid, like the carbohydrates in trees and one part gas, as in atmospheric Carbon Dioxide gas. If excess Carbon Dioxide enters the atmosphere through tectonic processes such as volcanism, photosynthetic activity removes this excess carbon dioxide from the biosphere and that excess is deposited as fossils to enter the lithosphere (rocks), never to interact with the biosphere again. This deposition is translated into vast quantities of fossilized carbon that has been removed from the biotic/atmospheric cycles. Unlike the biotic cycles of Carbon that stay deposited for tens of thousands of years. The fossil pools have deposition lifetimes of tens or hundreds of millions of years.
There have been fluctuations of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere in the past but equilibrium was gained and balance was restored. All this was long before humans.
The first human driven change that affected the local and regional climates was the massive loss of the global forest stock with the advent of colonization. This loss represents a debt to every nation that lost its forests as well as a debt to planetary atmospheric equilibrium. This debt can be settled by re-establishing the sequestered stocks of carbon that were lost by reforestation. But once this debt is settled there will be no more room on this planet to plant more trees to sequester the fossil carbon that is currently being released so irresponsibly.
Fossil carbon is the principal driver of climate change. As a substance that is over at least twenty million or more years older than the timber of the forests that were lost, it represents a material with a far higher carbon cost than a forest. It is also a fact that the levels of Carbon Dioxide, a major atmospheric gas are increasing in the atmosphere. This increase is linked to the destabilization of the climate, the burning of the fossil stock of Carbon being the principal driver of change. It is now very clear that the stability of planetary climate cycles are in jeopardy and a very large contributory factor to this crisis is the profligate activities of modern human society. It is the same activity that fuels the current vision of ‘Economic Development’ in Sri Lanka. The entire infrastructural investment, be it stadia, complexes or towers, require enormous amounts of energy for their operation. As our sustainable energy production is abysmally low, we will have to provide fossil energy to maintain this infrastructure, an activity patently destructive of the global climate equilibrium.
Another area of concern is that the system of agriculture that our farmers have been lured into. Through this type of agriculture they have been made addicts to fossil fuel energy for motive power and fertilizers. Not only do we loose vast sums of money and add to a decline in health, both human and environmental; we also have this nation adding yet another burden to the planets climate stability. In short we are ‘bankrupt’ as an independent, agricultural nation, also very cynical if we ever claim to be ‘green’ on any international stage.
On the wider picture, it is common knowledge, that there is a value difference between fossil derived Carbon Dioxide and biologically cycling Carbon Dioxide, but this fact has been ignored by the so-called ‘scientists’ who run the IPCC. Any high school child will know this fact, but it is ignored by the ‘climate scientists’ who claim to know best. Whatever their motives, the value differential of these cycles, biotic and fossil, must be recognized. Biotic carbon operates on time frames of tens or hundreds of thousands of years and fossil carbon in tens or hundreds of millions years. Further, fossil carbon never interacts with the living or biotic cycle. Fossil carbon entering the biotic cycle is the fundamental reason as to why there is an accelerating climate change effect. However, the growing of trees to compensate for fossil carbon and paying the same price as for biotic carbon is unfair and tantamount to ‘carbon laundering’. There is no way to equate the carbon from oil and coal with the carbon from a forest. One has a space in the biotic cycle the other does not. Carbon that cycles through living systems represents a fixed proportion of the planetary carbon thus there is no space in the atmosphere for fossil derived Carbon Dioxide.
Carbon Dioxide is extracted from the atmosphere by plants and converted into a solid form. This process has been hailed as a tool by which the problem of increasing gaseous Carbon can be addressed. ‘Plant trees which soak up the carbon dioxide’ the reasoning goes ‘and you can contribute to reducing the atmospheric burden of that gas’. Living woody biomass has been the first and logical candidate to be used as a potential tool in sequestering atmospheric carbon and has been featured largely in ‘Carbon capture’ projects. Although the volume of living biomass has now been measured on most global models of carbon cycling and this measure is being used in the evaluation of carbon stocks, there is a an urgent need to address the fundamental differences between the components of living biomass, photosynthetic biomass and respiring biomass.
Photosynthetic biomass performs the act of primary production, the initial step in the manifestation of life. The biomass so termed has the ability to increase in mass through the absorption of solar or other electromagnetic radiation while releasing oxygen and water vapour into the atmosphere. Respiring biomass is that component of living biomass that uses the output of photosynthesis to make the complicated biological patterns of life; it consumes oxygen to power its functions, and does not have photosynthetic functions itself. This distinction would seem to be fundamentally important when assessing the value of biomass that is being addressed. It is only this photosynthetic biomass which powers carbon sequestration, carbohydrate production, oxygen generation and water transformation, i.e. all actions essential for the sustainability of the life support system of the planet.
Yet currently, it is only one product of this photosynthetic biomass, as sequestered carbon, usually represented by wood/timber, that is recognized as having commercial value in the carbon market for mitigating climate change. The ephemeral part, the leaves, are generally ignored, yet the photosynthetic biomass in terrestrial ecosystems are largely composed of leaves, this component needs a value placed on it for its ‘environmental services’
It is not difficult to place value on photosynthetic biomass today. Initial computations are based on the current values of the carbon market are currently in excess of 125 billion dollars, assuming that the global market would pay at least a similar amount to maintain our life support system, the 93.1 billion tons of photosynthetic Carbon currently in stock would be roughly worth about 1.35 dollars per kilogram.
It is this biomass that has to grow in order to sequester the lost biotic Carbon. With such growth we will see more Oxygen, Carbon sequestering and water cleansing, throughout the planet. Much of the biomass to be gained is in degraded ecosystems around the planet, these areas are also home to the worlds rural poor, but what these degraded ecosystems do have, is great growth potential for generating photosynthetic biomass. If the restoration of these degraded ecosystems to achieve optimal photosynthetic biomass loads becomes a global goal, the amazing magic of photosynthesis could indeed help change our current dire course, create a new paradigm of growth and make the planet more benign for our children.
Instead of flogging the dead horse of fossil energy based growth as ‘Economic Development’, will we have the commonsense to appreciate the value of photosynthetic biomass and become the first country in the world to propose setting such a value? The realization of which will enrich not only our rural population but rural people the world over !
Groundviews,
Thanks for this article & others by the author. It explains & summarises the foremost problem facing mankind which is engaged in petty political squabbles.
Science has come a long way since the forties when we had an inkling about plants & photosyntheis from the book on botany by Ms.S.G.Pulimood.
A summary at least,of this article and others by Ranil Senanayake should be made available in schools.
In the beginning of civilisation, man worshipped the Sun, the gas giant in our part of the universe knowing that all of us and all our energy came from it.
Now this is forgotten and many other ‘gods’ overshadow and alter/determine human behaviour.
Nice article and very impressive suggestions on what is to be done with photosynthetic biomass.
Here’s a link to an article by Paul Krugman that was written way back in 1997.
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_dismal_science/1997/04/earth_in_the_balance_sheet.html
It outlines the position of economists on climate change. I hope that Krugman’s write-up will act to diminish the negative stereotyping of economists.
I also like your passing reference to the scientists who run the IPCC. Can I presume that also includes the Sri Lankan MIND at the IPCC? I hope you don’t MIND answering that question. LOL!
Dear Keynes,
I noted the fundamental shortcoming of the IPCC group in
http://groundviews.org/2011/12/17/climate-change/
My criticism is leveled at ALL concerned with maintaining this fiasco not any one person or group but the entire process. I quote:
‘The global effort on addressing the problems of climate change is also hampered by the fact that the IPCC is consisted only of people who are nominated by their Governments. Commenting on this feature Paul Reiter of the Pasteur Institute says, “Its Governments who nominate people, you will find in many chapters that there are people who are not scientists at all”.
From
http://groundviews.org/2011/12/02/restoring-shelter/
Having been a spectator at this circus, I see that the only thing most international ‘scientific’ bureaucrats are concerned about is ‘ensuring their positions by ‘not rocking the boat’. Jobs on these platforms are not secured by minding the truth or the well being of society. Sadly, I see no one in the IPCC (as yet) willing to address the issues that I have raised, but it does not mean that we, the public should stop asking ‘why’?
Obviously, about 90 percent of the members of the legislative assembly in Sri Lanka(SL) are a bunch of greedy and egoistic lot. They play to the media and the media play with them.
They have proved to be a useless and hopeless legal clan.
Though there was a problem of colonialsm arising out of grabbing Tamil Eelam(TE) as a colony by SL in 1972, the legislature wrongly called it an “ethnic problem” for the past 40 years.
They were chasing after a mirage and therefore a solution could not be found.
The politicos did not have the wisdom to solve this problem without war, murder, genocide and waste of financial resources.
Together, foolishly, the lawmakers of SL, bristly spent massive amounts to carry out a war against the people of TE.
Consequently, the Sri Lankan Ruppee has reached its all time low now.
This is perhaps the begining of the end of SL and the begining of TE.
The people of TE, inside and in exile, now have a strong intellectual and ideological grounding by the grace of God. And this is making them a tough customer for those who support the colonisation and empire building of the coloniser SL in TE.
This analysis of our situation is quite amazing. Dr. Senanayake’s proposal to look at the problem facing us clearly and without fanciful assumptions about what constitutes “growth”, demonstrates that very practical solutions can be implemented immediately to reverse our current path which is leading to a virtually certain disaster.
After reading this, my understanding of “ecosystems” has undergone a dramatic change in how I can comprehend what is necessary to reverse the horrible predicament facing us.
Dr. Ranil Senanayake’s postings on this forum have been spot on about both describing the problem and the solutions available to us, and most importantly his demonstrated acumen and out of the box thinking is leagues ahead of all the advice and inputs we have received from ” international” experts that the ADB and World Bank foists upon us. With a home grown, world class expert like Ranil living and doing stuff right in our midst, it would be a real shame if we do not heed his advice and harness his expertise immediately. At the very least the authorities at the decision making layer in the relevant line ministry’s and public and private sector institutions ought to read Dr. Senanayake’s past papers and articles and immediately put into practice his advice. India too should heed his advice, as without India falling in line with a collective effort alongside Sri Lanka, the bigger regional interplay of the south Asian ecological footprint remains highly vulnerable to the industrial scale coal and diesel fuel led energy production and poorly regulated industrial emissions and public transport pollution . We need to get Ranil’s perspective to a wider vernacular audience in Hindi, Tamil, Sinhalese, Gujarati, Kannada, and Bengali, just so that the local government officials and politicians who are the real decision makers on the devolved subjects at the ground level have an opportunity to understand the issue and the solutions and be empowered with knowledge to act on this important issue, and be awakened to the big picture question as to what kind of development model and direction the family of nations in our region wish to follow, and how best we could harness knowledge bearers like Ranil in this region, and others like him in their specific domains, and forge collaboration between relevant policy and implementing agencies to get the goals achieved. It is also time to get the industrial and mercantile sector commercial captains of industry to realize the potential future value of changing gears and jettisoning the fossil fuel economy based business models and embrace the future. The secretary of the treasury in both countries need to close ranks along with the private sector chambers of commerce and industry leaders, and the environmental experts to move inn one lock step, instead of the current lip service modus operandi that lacks real commitment due to their inability to appreciate the real risks and the real rewards in making the shift. Ranil, perhaps the best first step would be to publish a revised book that outlines the plan of action and get that translated into the vernacular languages and get the widest media coverage for it, and disseminate the chapters of the book in a serialized form in local newspapers and get the knowledge out there in the vernacular domain. There is tons of stuff out there in English but that is too vast a volume for the summarized reading that certain decision makers are seeking, and therefore a succinct summary of the baby steps they need to take needs to be out there, including links to more in-depth knowledge for the initiated. A web and phone app based knowledge tool could be very useful with instant translation widgets to give these vernacular speakers and readers an easily accessible platform to peruse the do list for each task and policy option they need to empower.
Chris Dharmakirti,
Great suggestions. Perhaps you and Dr. Ranil Senanayake should consider partnering with Veerabhadran Ramanathan’s Surya Project in India.
I also like project Surya’s promotion of solar and fuel efficient stoves. I do not know if it could be replicated in Sri Lanka because it may be susceptible to the Jevons Paradox, which can be mitigated by a fuel tax. The political implications of a fuel tax, as demonstrated by recent protests, are such that the government may not have the will to implement it.
Water for irrigation and electricity are dire needs in the present context for survival of our people. However, minimal use of fossil fuel in this connection is essential in terms of environmental protection and economic factors.
While many parts of the country is suffering from the lack of water for irrigation(and also for drinking and other purposes), a vast amount of water is running to the ocean without use. The country believes that almost all the hydro power sources are already tapped for electricity generation.
However, I have found a method to take irrigation water to dry zones without any operational cost and a way to generate more hydro electricity with a small shift of technology. I submitted my methodology to several people who have know how in the field, and all accepted it is theoretically correct. I presented them to the Minister Champika Ranawaka and he also accepted that it is “technologically feasible”. I e-mailed this to the Presidential Secretariat on request a couple of months back, however after that I didn’t get a response.
Kalu Ganga (Kalu River) alone takes over 300 cubic meters of water to the ocean every second. This water(and water of many other rivers) can be diverted to dry zones with a minimal capital cost and a vast amount of hydro power also can be generated. This almost no cost water and clean energy. However, I think no sufficient interest was generated. I cannot rule out all the possibilities of short comings of the method, however, I believe, it also cannot be ruled out as useless without any serious scientific and technological assessment of the methodology. However, unfortunately second alternative seems to the reality. No serious consideration was drawn to my proposal.
If somebody who is interested and capable of assessing and recommend it to the government high ranks if it is feasible I would like to give all the details.
Assessment of the proposal won’t cost anything, even if it is a failure, however, if the method id feasible(I believe it is feasible)the gains will not be of small scale.
I think, this would be some contribution towards Ranil Senanayaka’s mission.
Thanks!
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/forest20120217.html
http://blogs.usda.gov/2011/07/14/us-forest-service-finds-that-forests-play-huge-role-in-reducing-carbon-and-higher-global-temps/
I think he’s talking of the bigger picture!