Winds of Change 2.0 and its Implications
Repost This ArticleThe sweeping wave of protests over West Asia is refreshing to see twenty-two years after the fall of the Berlin wall. The demise of repressive communist regimes in Eastern Europe was not due to the direct intervention of the west, but the overall impact of home grown people’s power movements, which gathered pace as the USSR was weakened by the inherent failures of the Marxist economic model. History does seem to be repeating itself, but what had led to enduring democracies in the Eastern Europe nearly two decades ago may in the present context usher in fundamentalists as an alternative to the corrupt dictatorships that ruled these countries with the overt blessing of the west, in contrast to those countries behind the Iron Curtain. However, one cannot put these changes to a set pattern as the socio-economic context in each of these countries differs significantly.
The situation in Egypt is still volatile. The majority of its population is poor and illiterate. As with the case of such populations in other parts of the world they are drawn towards religion and in this particular case Islam is a source of stability. The chaos that followed Mubarak’s ousting dramatically demonstrated the way in which a power vacuum may dangerously propel countries towards anarchy. In such a situation, it might become easier for prosecuted fanatical organisations like the Muslim Brotherhood to take control. With the billions of dollars of advanced US weaponry in their arsenals thanks to the military aid provided to Mubarak’s regime, this would become a treasure trove for jihadists that are hell bent on destroying Satan and his accomplice Israel; not to mention securing control of the strategic Suez Canal. This of course is a nightmare not only for USA and Israel, but the rest of the word as well and would explain why President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are playing it safe, without letting a disastrous scenario like the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran to unfold that was instrumental in the electoral defeat of then President Carter whose liberal agenda was blamed for “losing” Iran as an ally and the subsequent hostage crisis, which included the botched attempt to free hostages by using the Delta Force.
However, in the case of Iran – the bête noire of West – the green liberal opposition movement once again challenges the conservative regime of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Unlike in Egypt, the power of conservatives that rule Iran is deeply etched in its social fabric. Hence, it is doubtful whether these protests would gain momentum to amass an uprising similar to the scale of the Islamic revolution that brought the current ruling class to power. Once again, USA’s options are limited. Any vocal support (Secretary Clinton voiced her subtle support) by the West for the opposition would deal a deathblow to the nascent pro-democracy movement and would even unite conservatives against their common enemy. The same would apply to the Libyan protest movement against one-time terror paymaster Quaddafi.
Bahrain, another US ally, is now resorting to military force in order to crush the demonstrations by its citizens. There is a strong likelihood of an Islamist upsurge in that country too, which will be of concern to Obama, as that country plays host to the US Fifth Fleet. So far only Saudi Arabia and Kuwait – both of which are strong US allies as well as autocratic states – are left untouched by the gathering domino effect. Perhaps with time, the same fate would fall on the despicable military Junta of Burma who rules that country in true Orwellian fashion.
One of the greatest lessons of the current pro-democracy protest movements is that people cannot be protelysised in to democracy by outside forces as was done in Iraq and Afghanistan with disastrous consequences, but instead it is the people themselves that should realise its value and stand up for it.
There is no real movement in Egypt towards religious extremism. Muslim Brotherhood does not have a widespread support base to cause such a radical islamist movement. Besides, the Egyptians who took part in the protests were young, progressives. They would not stand for their revolution to be hijacked by some religious sect.
The Tunisian situation set a nice precedent for other Arab countries to follow. But I don’t think this wave will continue towards other regions. Arab countries are unique in that they have a high percentage of young, educated, jobless people that are in unrest. Not the same with most other countries.
Dhanushka
what’d you say now, Islamists rule the roost in Egypt now ,right? Just as was predicted in this article
Why no mention of the “Family Junta” in Sri Lanka? Scared of angering the ruling family dictatorship and being bumped off like Lasnatha, Eknaligoda and other journalists?
I don’t think anyone can compare situation in Egypt/Tunisia/ Yemen with Sri Lanka. We are not that bad
”We are not that bad”
The South(west) of Sri Lanka and Northeast of Sri Lanka are too different worlds politically. Many outsiders and those in the South think only of the South when they think/talk.
Yeah regionalism like tribalism is a normal phrnomenon in Homo Sapien Sapiens
Little poem from the Mervyn:
“We are not that bad”
This is our new motto
The worst is yet to be coming
You are getting the ‘poto’?
Dear Analyst
You said, “We are not that bad.” When I read this I fell off my chair laughing! That is the understatement of this new century!Have you by any chance, like Rip Van Winkle been asleep for over 20 years?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rip_Van_Winkle
Tell me
Do you believe Prabhakran is a terrorist and a murderer
BTW I just gone thru ur bio and it seems you and I share love for almost same set of movie and books by Hadley Chase
“I don’t think anyone can compare situation in Egypt/Tunisia/ Yemen with Sri
Lanka. We are not that bad ”
oh yes , its not that bad !!!
check this out
No real opposition (bought over: divide & rule)
Opposition leader (presidential candidate) behind bars
Sham elections (huge margin in presidential election, 2/3 in parliamentary election)
Changed the constitution & term limit ( 18 th Amendment )
Rule under the draconian emergency law
No media freedom (more than one dozen of journalists murdered, countless attacks on media personals and institutions i.e Sirasa, Sunday leader, Siyatha, lanka E news etc etc )
Family oriented regime ( GR, BR, CR, NR, SR ……..R)
Grooming for the crown prince
SL‘s closest Allies ( Libya , Iran ,Burma , China etc )
Nepotism, high level of corruption, unprecedented lawlessness, wretched judicial system, dismal economy, sky rocketing inflation and excellent foreign policy ( SL being sidelined at an alarming rate )
Now please tell me, are not these the hard facts of reality, though many sycophants and cronies try their utmost to defend this despotic regime day in day out.
Dear Analyst,
Frankly, your statement does no justice to your name.
Say, two years ago, would you have ever thought that a single family would have such consolidated control over such a vast segment of the country’s administration responsibilities as it has today?
If, two years ago, you had some indication that such power consolidation would occur, would you have voted such a leadership in?
It is not where we are at now that matters – it is in which direction we are moving that is critical.
Could you list even just one or two specific policies by the current government that reflects, in your view, a “progressive” tendency in a civilizational, democratic or broad-based developmental sense?
Think about that – perhaps, will give some legitimacy to the pen-name!
@Sarath
what i didnt know 7 years ago when i voted Ranil was that
Mahinda would put an end to illiterate, murderous facist terrorist and
his brainwashed cohorts who infested north & east of our country .
Thanks to Mahinda today our children can grow up in a country free of
terrorism .So this is why i say we are not that bad , contrary what
disgruntled diaspora activists would always hope for .
Dear Analyst,
What you are expressing is not ANALYSIS, but rather blind faith and gratitude – and even that, many would consider misplaced. If getting rid of terrorism was the “be all and end all,” mantra (that the regime would hope to hide under, thanks to supporters like you) perhaps you should at least wonder why Sarath Fonseka, who shared in that most celebrated event, is now languishing behind bars.
An analysis is a totally different matter from blind faith and consequent emotional outburst – especially when one claims to make an intelligent judgment as to whether the current regime is or is not “not so bad,” vis-à-vis the many long-protected dictatorships that are under fire even as we speak
The euphoria that Egyptians felt thirty years ago when Mubarak wrestled out the leadership was no less than your present sentiments. After 30 years, now Egyptian’s realize that the all-consuming greed of Mubarak, his family and cohorts resulted in the rest of the country being robbed of 30 years of development.
So, sure one can go ahead and bury one’s head in the sand and sing hosannas, and go about whistling away merrily. And then wake up thirty years from now. But that does not qualify as analysis. That was my point.
I see you have carefully avoided answering “Could you list even just one or two specific policies by the current government that reflects, in your view, a “progressive” tendency in a civilizational, democratic or broad-based developmental sense?” I can’t blame you – many a PhD’s have had difficulty facing that!
As for “putting an end” to illiterate, murderous fascist terrorist and his brainwashed cohorts who infested north & east of our country, even the humblest of analysts would have spent at least a minute to first figure out who or what was responsible for laying the ground work that helped “start” that infestation that needed to be “put down”!
@ Sarath
Diaspora activists blindly funded LTTE to wreak havoc in Sri Lanka. They never questioned innocents including unweaned children killed by LTTE in most despicable manner.While some diaspora members have Phd s they were pretty content uncritically to follow edicts of a criminal who had only education up to 8 grade and had baptism of fire by killing Jaffna Mayor.
Until you get out from your narrow tribalism you will never ethically equipped to criticize Sri Lanka.
After all we know that trashing Sri Lanka has become livelihood of Post War Tamil diaspora . Given new tough regulations in Western nations ( thank God for David Cameron and Stephen Harper who defeated terrorist courting lefties) only way to earn bread and butter of these false asylim seekers is to spread false propaganda.They don’t empathize with Tamils still living in Sri Lanka.
So until you have a ethical reason to question Sri Lanka and MR , you will only get this type of responses from me. Come clean and let’s discuss.
My dear, dear “analyst”
First rule of analysis is being able to focus on an issue – not attempt to divert from it, with vague excuses and accusations.
Here is what you said “I don’t think anyone can compare situation in Egypt/Tunisia/ Yemen with Sri Lanka. We are not that bad.”
My observation that it is not an analyzed conclusion but rather a “head-in-the-sand” mentality, arising out of either servility or ignorance, or perhaps a blend of both. My reasoning is that, the blind-faith and euphoria thirty years ago in Egypt and continued servility to the dictatorship denied the Egyptians 30 years of progress. It took 30 years for Egyptian’s to wake up. So, in the good tradition of “Lessons Learned” let us analytically recognize such signals and prospects, and not be naively servile and pseudo-patriotic, burying our heads in the sand.
What has any of these issues got to do with Diaspora and LTTE and terrorism and other dead-horses you are still trying beat up – only because you have no answer. Don’t find bogus excuses.
If you are looking for an “ethical reasons to question SL and MR”, for you to answer, here is a list of issues that Srilal (thank you Srilal) has been kind enough and intelligent enough to compile here above in the same blog, that I copy for your benefit:
• No real opposition (bought over: divide & rule)
• Opposition leader (presidential candidate) behind bars
• Sham elections (huge margin in presidential election, 2/3 in parliamentary election)
• Changed the constitution & term limit ( 18 th Amendment )
• Rule under the draconian emergency law
• No media freedom (more than one dozen of journalists murdered, countless attacks on media personals and institutions i.e Sirasa, Sunday leader, Siyatha, lanka E news etc )
• Family oriented regime ( GR, BR, CR, NR, SR ……..R)
• Grooming for the crown prince
• SL‘s closest Allies ( Libya , Iran ,Burma , China etc )
• Nepotism, high level of corruption, unprecedented lawlessness, wretched judicial system, dismal economy, sky rocketing inflation and excellent foreign policy ( SL being sidelined at an alarming rate )
Would any one of the above meet your need of the “ethical reason” standard you set to question the Royalty?
Given that you consider eliminating the “illiterate, murderous fascist terrorist and his brainwashed cohorts who infested north & east of our country” as a singularly sufficient act to bestow unquestioning loyalty, would you consider the post-war treatment of the one-time celebrated war-hero Sarath Fonseka as ethical?
If that also escapes meeting your bar, here is another nice piece from Tisaranee Gunasekara – not from the dreaded Diaspora:
“The Egyptian and Libyan Revolutions provide a rare window into the inner-workings of despotic-political dynasties in the Third World. These insights are of immense relevance to us, as President Rajapaksa works indefatigably to tighten his grip on power and entrench his own dynasty. In Sri Lanka, the process is being fast-forwarded; unlike his brother-despots, Rajapaksa came to power not as a young man but on his 60th Birthday, and must work faster to implant Familial Rule and Dynastic succession. Thus the indecent haste with which the First Son is being promoted; for instance, Namal Rajapaksa, though a mere junior-parliamentarian (and no cricketer), presented the ‘Man of the Match’ award at the first Cricket World Cup game in Sri Lanka — held in a stadium named after his Presidential-father, in the family-fief of Hambantota.”
Are these enough of ethical reasons to question your Royalty? Are all these actions indicative of “progressive” and “not-so-bad” outlook for the country’s future? That was my question.
Now that I have given you all these “ethical reasons” Can you answer the simple question: “Could you list even just one or two specific policies by the current government that reflects, in your view, a “progressive” tendency in a civilizational, democratic or broad-based developmental sense?”
Your statement “you will only get this type of responses from me” is again characteristic of an imbecilic, arrogant, immature brat-of-a-child than that of a mature “analyst.” In that sense, you merely reinforce my original assessment.
Finally, what do you think is “unclean” about my observation, implication or question – perhaps if you can be explicit about it, then I will be happy to “cleanse” it up for you as much as you like, if that will help you answer a question like an adult, even if not as an analyst.
Analyst, though I whole-heartedly support your sentimrnts, I think you should change your moniker to pugilist, [edited out].
Round three to Sarath.
Hello Sanjeev,
Seems like a three round knock out – a rather light-weight either as an “analyst” or otherwise!
Jesting aside, I often wonder what is behind such groundless (and seemingly shameless) drum-beating. Is it genuine ignorance, or is it worshipping-servility, or is it done consciously just for the little crumbs one is generously bestowed for such services? It is, indeed, difficult to fathom – but none of them comforting, viewed from the long-term prospects for the country.