Ranil’s road, Mahinda’s map
Does the UNP and Opposition leader Mr Ranil Wickremesinghe suffer from a compulsion towards electoral suicide or is it a condition of political sado-masochism? Only someone who is politically suicidal or sadistic towards his own party and its supporters could have gone to Jaffna last week, in the throes of a crucial election campaign at the end of which the UNP must deprive the ruling UPFA of a two thirds majority, and made the speech that he did. If the TamilNet report of his speech is untrue he must contradict it immediately and loudly.
Mr Wickremesinghe has a millstone of his own choosing decorating his neck, namely the abiding memory of his policy of appeasement towards the LTTE. He chooses to add to this weight with a promise that military camps will be removed, and a commission of inquiry will be established, topping it off with an apology for the travails visited on the people of Jaffna (with no mention of the travails the people of Jaffna visited on themselves and the rest of the country by incubating and succouring a fascist movement, bolstering it over other, more humane armed options even within the Eelam struggle). The list of deaths he apologises for includes Mr. Amirthalingam, murdered by the Tigers after tea!
Extracts from the report follow:
“All military camps in Jaffna peninsula will be scrapped if UNP wins” – Ranil
[TamilNet, Friday, 19 March 2010, 16:25 GMT]
Ranil Wickremasinghe, leader of United National Party (UNP), who arrived in Jaffna accompanied by his wife said that all the military camps in Jaffna peninsula will be scrapped except Palaali Sri Lanka Army (SLA) camp, in the UNP election campaign meeting held in Jaffna Veerasingham Hall Friday…More than five hundred people attended this meeting where UNP chief candidate for Jaffna electorate Ms. Vijayakala Mahendran, Mrs. Ranil Wickremasinghe, Tissa Athanayake, the General Secretary of UNP and its treasurer Swaminathan were present…
• A Commission of Inquiry will be established and it will immediately begin to find what had happened to the persons gone missing in Jaffna peninsula during the present government.
• No one except the government armed forces will be permitted to bear weapons and all paramilitary groups will be done away with.
“We all have to beg the forgiveness of the people for all the pain we had inflicted on them,” Ranil Wickremasinghe said.
“The burning of Jaffna Public Library, attacks of Dalada Maligawa and Maha Bothi, the loses of political leaders like Amirthalingam, Raviraj, Maheswaran, Joseph Pararajasingham and many others are all tragic indeed,” he added.
“All of us are responsible for all these tragic events for which we have to apologize to the people,” Ranil said.” (TamilNet March 19, 2010)
Mr Wickremesinghe’s discourse of ritualistic abasement is going to lose him Sinhala votes while it gains him no Tamils votes either, because the Jaffna people will vote for the TNA, Gajan Ponnambalam or Douglas Devananda. Â By the way, in its election manifesto the TNA has neither a word of criticism of the LTTE (not even for assassinating Amir, Neelan and the Yogeswaran couple) nor an apology to anyone, Sinhala, Tamil or Muslim.
The UNP leader probably assumes that all he needs do is to deny the UPFA a two-thirds majority at the upcoming election and that at the conclusion of President Rajapakse’s second term, the ‘patriotic project’ would have run its course to the extent that an exhausted and frustrated electorate would naturally turn to him, as it did to his uncle JR Jayewardene in 1977. There are at least three things wrong with this picture: as Opposition leader, JRJ and his second in command Premadasa, gave the UNP more, not less, populist mass appeal than the SLFP led coalition. Secondly, a weak or average performance by the UNP at this election opens the door for post election defections (ostensibly to ‘save the country from the TNA in the face of Ranil’s appeasement of federalism) which could make up the game changing two thirds. Thirdly, Mr Wickremesinghe’s ‘minoritarian’ profile opens space for a ‘patriotic-populist’ Second Opposition in the form of the Fonseka-JVP bloc, which will be so bitter towards him that it fields a candidate at the next Presidential election and draws enough votes to split the Opposition and elect (or re-elect) a ruling party candidate!
Which brings us to one of the most crucial questions in Lankan politics: what, apart from every incumbent SLFP administration’s obvious tilt towards him, keeps Mr Wickremesinghe as the leader of the UNP, when the cost to that party, the Opposition, the democratic system, the economy, the country and the people is so colossal, cumulative and continuous?
What does his continued incumbency as leader say about the UNP and the social stratum that seems to have a hammerlock on that party? The equation between that social stratum and Mr Wickremesinghe was best exemplified by the photographs on the front pages of last Sunday’s newspapers, of Mr Wickremesinghe (supposedly) singing ‘Delilah’ in the Mustangs tent at the annual Royal-Thomian match. Those pictures would not have gone down well with today’s electorate. They revealed Ranil as the ‘organic leader’ of a decadent social class which lamentably, seems to have a death grip on the UNP.
Meanwhile, President Rajapakse’s interview given to the perspicacious Ravi Velloor of the prestigious Straits Times (Singapore) left me with mixed feelings. The story was prominently displayed and filled an entire page. President Rajapakse came off as confident, successful and strong. It was clear that no one – Brown, Miliband or the Global Tamil Forum — could kick Sri Lanka or its people around on Mahinda Rajapakse’s watch, and of that I was proud. That’s the good news. Having read it however, I wondered what the legendary Lee Kwan Yew, who may well have read it himself, would have thought, since our President also came across as a little defensive and evasive, lacking a clear message and vision. Overall, the impression was one of confidence and strength but the interview revealed some blind-spots:
- The understanding of the issue of equity not in socioeconomic terms but solely in spatial or geographic terms: not rich and poor, or ‘haves and have-nots’ (as Premadasa had it), but ‘Colombo’ vs. the provinces. It ignores the disparities within the cities and provinces, including the Western province. An earlier SLFP administration which proceeded on this ideological basis spawned one of the most damaging policies in independent Sri Lanka, namely district-wise standardisation in university admission. There is also no realisation that Colombo, the hub of connectivity with the world, a focus of educated professionals and the corporate sector and the most multicultural area of the country, must not be neglected or treated as a hostile or occupied territory.
- The inadequacy of the understanding of the ethnic problem and the inconsistency and underestimation of what is needed to resolve it. Vacillation instead of a clear vision as to how the problem should be solved. (‘Village level devolution for the North and East’ when delivering this year’s Independence Day speech, ‘13th amendment minus police powers’ when talking to any foreigner.)
- The lack of awareness that, while imitation is dangerous, one has to learn from the success stories of other countries and leaders. Â Deng Hsiao Peng learned from his visit to the US in 1979 and Singapore in 1984. His dialogue with Lee Kwan Yew in that year is widely credited as a conceptual catalyst of China’s economic miracle.
- Lack of awareness that the building of ports and harbours alone will not develop a country, and that modernizing reforms are needed, high standards of education and a first rate administrative apparatus have to be restored, corruption has to be drastically reduced and the best brains in all fields (especially scientific and professional) have to be incentivised to remain in Sri Lanka or return, thus reversing the brain drain. Â The Asian economic miracle, be it in East Asia or China under Deng Hsiao Peng, did not occur on the basis of vilifying the cities and glorifying the rural and the provincial, but modernising them, opening them up and integrating them into the world economy.
When one observes the political behaviour of Ranil Wickremesinghe, I feel reconfirmed in my own mind that my policy of critical support for President Rajapakse, an adaptation of the Maoist policy of ‘unity and struggle’ is still the right one. This does not however pertain to the upcoming Parliamentary election because the choice is not between Mahinda and Ranil but between the ruling coalition which is on a drive for a two thirds majority, and the opposition which itself presents two options, the UNP and the Fonseka-JVP faction. Military uni-polarity is imperative in a state, particularly a small island, while political uni-polarity is not.
Post war Sri Lanka needs a Deng Hsiao Peng or Vladimir Putin, who made their countries strong through ideologies of rapid modernization and modernising, globalising reforms. It needs President Rajapakse to study and learn from them. Ranil’s UNP, with its social insensitivity to the sentiments of the majority of the people, of the masses, is incapable of spearheading a socially sustainable modernisation. Mahinda, a far more organic representative of the masses, can be the vehicle of such modernisation provided he is capable of transcending the more backward mass sentiments. Perhaps what he needs is a parliament that will keep him on his toes and act as a check on the ideological apparatuses of the state. Such a balance of forces may once again bring out the best in him. If, however, post-parliamentary election, the configuration continues pretty much as it is, and the hegemonic ideology remains undisturbed, what will be Sri Lanka’s trajectory?
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It is interesting that you mention Putin, Russia’s new czar. Medvedev is a mere figurehead put in place while Putin pulls the strings from behind and a scenario that is quite likely to play out here.
Incidentally, Russian economy is still dependent largely on natural resources and is a long way from modernisation.
Dayan,
“Mahinda, a far more organic representative of the masses, can be the vehicle of such modernisation provided he is capable of transcending the more backward mass sentiments.”-
He was voted into power by the so called backward mass sentiments so how can he transcend them?
The SLFP from the days of the Bandaranaike family has always had such backward mass sentiments supporting them. This is nothing new.
Ranil W’s UNP or again parts of it are far more modern, cosmopolitan and global in a capitalistic sense than the SLFP, JVP, JHU etc. Ranil W’s UNP may not relate well to the masses but they can relate to the West which Mahinda cannot do. Mahinda has chosen to bypass the West and reach out to China as the Chinese are not going to lecture him on human rights.
Ranil has the right to say whatever he wants whether in Jaffna or Colombo. It is upto the public to decide whether to give him the vote or not.
The more pertinent question is does Ranil W want to relate to the masses?
And to believe that these people are capable of getting 2/3! Man I should give up watching comedy channel!
magreta,
I agree.
Interesting article.
Dayan, what do you think it says about the state of politics in the country and the cause of national integration, when a politician cannot speak to affairs that are of concern to Tamils in the North, ie, demilitarization, disarming of paramilitaries, investigations into ‘disappearances’ without being accused of being an ‘appeaser’ in the South?
didn’t yu see recently the people of Russia were rallying against the corruption of Russian governent.
With all the sources in the world to find out what Ranil W. said in Jaffna he goes to TamilNet; is this guy serious? RW can’t speak Tamil so you could have understood what he said just by listening to him rather than relying on TamilNet’s interpretation.
I understand some people’s desire to find any angle they can to belittle RW but this is pathetic. As you can see Sri Lanka has numerous experts who seem to know what’s wrong with the country and how to fix it. They are just incapable any action to help the damned thing.
If the voters give a two-third or more to the governing party the apocalyptic last sentence of the article is what could most likely prevail. It will then be too late. Haven’t we seen that with what late JRJ did? He turned a parlaimentary democracy even with its faults into a horerndous dictatorship from which the country is still reeling politically, socially and econmically. That scenario remains the real danger.
Niranjan, Ranil is trying to lead the masses, so yeah, he should appeal to the masses.
Nevertheless I like this article, simply because unlike many a biased articles here theres less of slander against one side.
Though, lets be honest, Ranil has far outstayed his welcome, and not many people in the UNP can stand for it. There has been some inner problems in the party (party meetings, etc…).
Dayan Jayatillake has twisted the facts… the inconsistencies are too numerous to name, yet glaringly obvious. Perhaps on another day I shall point out more of them. Anyway, here are two of his most erroneous assumptions:
“because the Jaffna people will vote for the TNA, Gajan Ponnambalam or Douglas Devananda. ”
I don’t pretend to speak for the Jaffna people, but I can say for certain that the Jaffna people will never vote for Douglas Devananda. Douglas is just another paid stooge of GOSL… the LTTE tried to knock him off several times.
” Which brings us to one of the most crucial questions in Lankan politics: what, apart from every incumbent SLFP administration’s obvious tilt towards him, keeps Mr Wickremesinghe as the leader of the UNP, when the cost to that party, the Opposition, the democratic system, the economy, the country and the people is so colossal, cumulative and continuous? ”
Actually Ranil Wickremasinghe had a stellar economic record. I quote from Wikipedia:
“However, his policies set off a considerable recovery in the down falling country’s economy. In 2002 he was able to secure a GDP growth rate of 4.0% which was -1.5% in the previous year. During the next two years of his tenant he attained the figures 5.9% and 5.4% respectively. [11] Also he was able to keep the inflation (annul percent increase) below 10%. [12] In December 2002 Ranil Wickremesinghe brought forward a solution package called Regaining Sri Lanka[13]as a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) in order to reduce the poverty of the country and to gain debt reliefs.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ranil_Wickremasinghe#Economic_Policy
Where do I begin to describe Mahinda Rajapakse’s economic achievement? Need I mention how many times Mihin Airlines went bankrupt (keeping in mind that the Rajapakse’s were significant shareholders? What about the appointing of ponzi-scheme artist Nivaard-Cabraal as Central Bank Governor? Or the decision to oppose a decrease in oil prices, despite the injunction issued by the Supreme Court? Of course the raw economic data speaks for itself – massive inflation, unemployment, a major budget deficit, and of course, the urgent need to borrow from the IMF (despite a pledge from Mahinda himself to avoid doing so) to cover a decline in reserves.
Slight correction: keeping in mind that the Rajapakse’s owned significant shares
Anon,
Is Ranil actually thinking of leading the masses?
“He was voted into power by the so called backward mass sentiments so how can he transcend them?
The SLFP from the days of the Bandaranaike family has always had such backward mass sentiments supporting them. This is nothing new.”
“Backward mass sentiments”??
Arbitrary yardsticks.?? Arbitrary judges ?? Who knows??
Thanks!
Dear DJ,
“He chooses to add to this weight with a promise that military camps will be removed, and a commission of inquiry will be established, topping it off with an apology for the travails visited on the people of Jaffna”
What is wrong with what Ranil stated? What is the need for these military camps, HSZ, etc when LTTE is no more? I think it is high time people start to realize this instead of clinging onto the same old insecurities.
Ranil is much more capable of running a modernized and democratic state than the current Rajapakse regime, which seems to be enjoying popular support at the expense of minority rights, fueling unnecessary fears among the majority in the name of anti-imperialism and patriotism.
I agree with your assessment of the blind-spots.
Modvoice,
I agree with you that Ranil is more of a moderniser than Mahinda . But are we a democratic state? Were we ever one? The only semblance of democracy that we(the people) seem to have is elections.
How can Ranil run this country if he does not get elected? The only time he was elected to power Chandrika and the JVP did him in.
As Dayan says we cannot be certain that Ranil is going to win even in 6 years time. A lot can change between now and then.
There is an strange thinking/behaviour identifiable in our modern educated people. I think this is really an epidemic. When somebody learn something they think everything should be done according to what they have learned. Economists think that the economy of the country should be changed according to “Economics” he learned. He never want to learn/think about the prevailing realities and use his knowledge accordingly to economic advancement. People who has an education in Law thinks that common masses should behave according to law they learned whether it is unfair or unjustified or the legal system of the country is “lawless”. This tendency is more acute among who educated Political Science. They think this country should be governed according to the political theory they learned. Marxists think it should be governed according to the theories of Marxism. Some think we should adjust according to the principles of democracy. Some think Liberalism or its principles should be followed as it is.
Many want people to be as what they have learned in their books.
Some fine examples for this strange thinking/behaviour of these modern educated elites can be given from one of their role models, opposition leader Mr. Ranil Wickramasinhe. He wanted the farmers of this country to chew chewing gum instead of their ” Bulath Hape” (chewing betel). He wanted them to remove their “Amudes” (loin cloth) and to wear elite national deress: Denim trouser. That much is the “wisdom” of our modern educated people.
Modern educated people should learn to cut their coat according to their cloth. Until such time they will not be more than a bunch of jokers.
(Dr. DJ is an exception.)
Thanks!
Dear ModVoice,
“Ranil is much more capable of running a modernized and democratic state than the current Rajapakse regime”
How did Ranil “modernize” SL when he was in power from 2002-4?
Dear Wijayapala,
“How did Ranil “modernize” SL when he was in power from 2002-4?”
It depends on how you define “modernize.” If by “modernize” you mean infrastructure developments then I doubt there were any progress in that short period he was in power. However, I am referring to adopting friendlier policies to stay competitive in today’s market and not to build debts upon debt, polarizing toward the east, and most importantly respecting human rights.
I don’t think Ranil will be elected in many years to come as Niranjan said. Personally, I feel that his appeasement of LTTE during the CFA is a bit over-hyped about. Those who criticize him forget that during the CFA, the LTTE dropped their demand for separate state and this period allowed the defection of Karuna, which was crucial in capturing the East. Ranil’s critics often fail to ask why Rajapakse appointed Karuna, who was responsible for the expelling of muslims and the killing of unarmed policemen, as a minister was not considered a traitor in the same sense as they consider Ranil.
Anyways, I have no faith in any Sri Lankan politician. However, among the politicians of the mainstream parties, I favour Ranil over the others mainly because I believe he will be more democratic and friendlier toward the minorities.
With respect to my comment:
“Ranil’s critics often fail to ask why Rajapakse appointed Karuna, who was responsible for the expelling of muslims and the killing of unarmed policemen, as a minister was not considered a traitor in the same sense as they consider Ranil.”
Sorry for the mistake – I don’t think I conveyed what I intended to mean. It should read something like this:
Ranil’s critics often fail to ask why Rajapakse, who appointed Karuna as a minister- who was responsible for the expelling of muslims and the killing of unarmed policemen, was not considered a traitor in the same way as Ranil for pleasing an enemy.
Asian economic miracle?
Here’s a piece by the economist Paul Krugman which busts that myth.
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/50550/paul-krugman/the-myth-of-asias-miracle
The problem with these economic miracle claims is that they lead us (especially Asians) into believeing that we have some kind of miraculous ability to harness yin-yang type of powers and apply them to create prosperity. If there is such a miracle, the Japanese would surely like to hear about it. Throughout the 1990s, Japan’s economy was mired in stagnation which led to the Ushinawareta junen, the Japanese phrase for the “Lost Decade.”
Instead of applying the time tested solution of fiscal policy advocated by John Maynard Keynes ( the father of modern economics), the Japanese probably contacted their miraculous force called yin-yang and decided to go in for monetary policy, which as Keynes had predicted will only lead to further stagnation.
Ironically, Japan’s economy enjoyed a brief spurt because of the demand created by the housing bubble in the United States.