In fact those 100 persons are from Sri Lanka; urban as well as rural. I believe the perceptions changed in the last 10 days with the 3 of above conditions I have doubted in the answer to Niranjan, they are;

Violation of election laws; illegal/unlawful publicity and promotions by cut-outs, banners/posters etc
• Use of state media for unlawful/illegal publicity, to spread baseless allegations and intense mudslinging.
• Unleashing terror towards (assaulting / killing) opposition supporters
• Provoking racism in the rural Sinhala dominated areas etc

However, now MR has won and I wish he will attend to rectify the division among ethnic groups and make a genuine effort for reconciliation and economic/socila development of Sri Lanka.

Thanks again for reading my article and making comments

Both the leading candidates in the present Presidential election are not fit to govern the country. Therefore, your concerns and feelings are valid.
I am in agreement with you on them. My biggest worry is the whipping up of racism in the south by both leading parties. Perhaps the only non-racist candidate in the contest in Bahu. I feel it is better to vote for a third party rather than two candidates who are similar in attitudes and beliefs at least where race is concerned. In my opinion race should not be an issue in a civilised country. Whether Sri Lanka is a civilised country is another debate.

My predictions are not based solely on beliefs and my feelings. My predictions are based on discussions I have had with some rural people and from what I have observed in rural areas in the very recent past. My predictions are also based on the Presidential results of 2005.
Another thing that should be kept in mind is that all Presidents of Sri Lanka have got a second term in office. The only exception was Premadasa.

I like the sound of your survey, as its from someone we can trust. Could you please, time permitting, let us know what your sample size was and some more information regarding the survey.

Thanks

Namal

Thank you for letting us know your feeling and beliefs. Everyone has his/her own feelings, beliefs and perceptions about how people would vote.
My article is mainly based on a survey on the intention of voting towards and past voting patterns. I tried my best not to contaminate the predictions with not only my own feelings and beliefs but even with my observations/concerns such as;
• Violation of election laws; illegal/unlawful publicity and promotions by cut-outs, banners/posters etc
• Use of state media for unlawful/illegal publicity, to spread baseless allegations and intense mudslinging.
• Unleashing terror towards (assaulting / killing) opposition supporters
• Election day (26th January) rigging
• Provoking racism in the rural Sinhala dominated areas etc

My article is not based on what I believed or my perceptions, it’s an analysis based on a survey.
I am giving below my concerns which I have not incorporated into my predictions, which are purely based on survey results.
Those concerns are;
• unleashing violence to fear the general public and avoid people using their franchise
• unbelievably escalation of violation of election laws
• spreading racism when the need of the day is reconciliation
• State media has became an obvious prostitute which offers free service to the government
.

I have heard one of your predictions some years ago, that one of the Sri Lankan conglomate is finanacially mismanaged and that will collapse unless the chairperson listens to professional advice rather than getting carried away with what people around him say for personal benefits.It happened as you predicted.

That shows your ability to analyse financial statments. SO LET’S TEST HOW GOOD YOU ARE IN POLITICS.

The Tamil vote is split even though the majority will go to SF. The Muslim vote is also split. Not all Muslims will vote SLMC.

I also believe the Indian poll is more accurate. MR is likely to get between 50%-53% of the vote. There are over 14, 000, 000 registered voters in this country now. However, not everyone will vote and there will be spoilt votes as well as valid votes that will go to candidates other than the main two. Therefore lets assume that there are about 10,000,000 valid votes for the two main candidates. That would mean the the winning candidate has to get 5 million votes to win this election. Last time MR got 4, 887,152 compared to RW’s 4, 706, 366. Therefore, MR has to increase his vote marginally whereas SF has to get over 200,000 + votes to reach the required number of 5 million votes. The question is has SF convinced the voter that he is the better choice in order to get that number of votes?

1. I have the same feelings and wish people will be brave enough to safeguard their franchise
2. The signals so far do not indicate a significant change
3. Yes, it’s critical. OUtcome might be different as it was in 2005. That’s why we have identify it as the 4th Critical Sensitive Factor.

Dear Somewhat disgusted.

I can tell you this 100 responses represent lower and upper middle class. Yes there were mobile users but I do not think they represent the bottom of the populace. 64 of them declaired that they voted for MR in 2005. Therefore the sample is somewhat bias towards MR.

Dear We Srilanka,

Me too very anxious about the actual results on 27 Jan. I am not trying to convince anybody but just did a research as I did in the past and possessed a credible track record for correct predictions. But as you wish to remain ananimous I donno how did you try to convince me and realised it was hard? Also, You will be vanished if SF wins.

1. Do you still think whether the total poll will stand same with the present happenings here
2. If there any swing of votes after your projections.
3. What will be your prediction if North/East poll is very low

Or has MR planned election rigging to get the results and India is aware of it?

Yes, you are right. My point in that para is to dispute Viplv’s claim of 12% lead by MR. Whoever wins the margin is likely to be capped with 2%-4% and, the survey outcome favours SF as on 17 Jan.

While I don’t know anything about how the Indian survey was conducted, and the prediction doesn’t quite sound right, I have a few questions on the methodology used in your own survey.

While sample size might not matter too much, I believe a key to getting a correct result is proper representation of various stakeholders. Can you explain how the 100 candidates were picked? Did you use a telephone directory to pick users? Also, did you include/exclude the far greater number of mobile phone users? The poorer segments of the population are more likely to use mobile phones than landlines.

I mainly want to determine how well a reasonably representative cross-section of the populace was captured and what the margin of error is likely to be.

Thanks!