Where We Are and Where To?
“War is the highest form of struggle for resolving contradictions, when they have developed to a certain stage, between classes, nations, states, or political groups, and it has existed ever since the emergence of private property and of classes” said Mao . Thus, a civil war in Sri Lanka which is a capitalist economy with its strong feudal remnants is to preserve the class interests, privileges and benefits of the ruling elite.
It could be argued that the recent political and cultural bashing of ‘the other’ in the Sri Lankan society commenced in a major way, following the signing of the ceasefire agreement (CFA) in 2002. The military and political weakening of the LTTE intensified in 2004 with Karuna Amman (Muralitharan) relieved or expelled from the LTTE, who was probably recruited by the pro-GoSL forces and RAW. By the end of 2005, the parties to the conflict were on the verge of an all out war against each other. Sinhala nationalist groups strongly backed Mr Mahinda Rajapakse’s presidential campaign, because they were convinced that he would tear down the CFA, demerge the north and east, disband the Norwegian facilitation and conduct a successful war against the LTTE. The LTTE’s direct involvement in preventing North-east Tamil votes in the presidential elections also helped Mr Rajapakse’s presidential victory.
The battle lines were drawn in 2006, when the Sri Lankan Security Forces (SLSF) and the LTTE confronted each other over the water supply from the Mavil Aru in the Eastern Province. In August 2006, the LTTE restored the water supply but the SLSF continued to strike at the LTTE until they gained control of the sluice gates of the reservoir and beyond. Despite the CFA, the resumption of full scale, but undeclared war had begun. The Sri Lankan Air Force had begun bombarding the LTTE held positions during this confrontation, which indicated the beginning of a long-term military strategy to drive the LTTE out of the East first and then out of the Vanni.
The declared aims of the current war effort of the government (GoSL) were to attain political, administrative and territorial unity of the people in Sri Lanka. To achieve this, Sinhala nationalist groups wanted to tear down the CFA, demerge the north and east, disband the Norwegian facilitation and conduct a successful war against the LTTE and these pledges seem almost completely fulfilled. A further aim according to certain Sinhala nationalist groups is to ensure the dominance of the Sinhalese over other Sri Lankans.
The aim of the LTTE is to establish a separate political and territorial Tamil Eelam, in which Tamils could exercise their dominance over other communities.
Before we can discuss future directions, we need to make a hard headed political assessment of the conflict as it currently stands. According to the government and its media allies, the LTTE has been completely defeated. The LTTE has lost almost all the territory it held during the time of the CFA and it has almost lost its entire conventional military capability. Therefore, GoSL and the nationalist forces supporting it seemed to have achieved their declared aims. Yet, the difference between defeating the LTTE militarily and destroying the LTTE politically does not seem to have been understood.
On a military level, what will be the cost of keeping this territorial unity? It would require enormous amounts of human, material and financial resources to be spent on maintaining it. Further, the psychological effects caused by the war on society as a whole, including the Tamils and armed forces of all sides to the conflict will continue to be challenging and daunting.
Political unity is becoming an ever receding mirage too. The Sinhala and Tamil people have become ever more distant. Some Sinhalese genuinely want to help Tamils rebuild their lives after more than three and half decades of conflict. Many others that I have met are obviously in a triumphant mood-set. In the context of the war, the Muslim population too seems to have been drawn into militant ways in the East and in the Puttalam Mannar areas.
The Tamil psyche is hurt as never before. Their feeling of subjugation will multiply when the conventional war ends. Most Tamils perceive this war as an invasion to grab ‘their land’. Their sense of anger and resentment will remain for a long time. The current war has accelerated the tensions and distance between the majority of the Sinhala, Muslim and Tamil diaspora.
The war has been the catalyst that has brought the majority of Tamils worldwide to unite in a single front against the GoSL, the Indian Central Government (ICG) and extreme forms of Sinhala nationalism. Previously, such sentiments were limited to Tamils living in Tamilnadu. This support should not be, as has been happening for some time, be instantly labeled as supporting the LTTE or a separate state.
The current war has brought the Sri Lankan national question to the forefront of international discourse, second only to the questions of Palestine and Darfur. It has become embedded in the maelstrom of conflicts that are currently inflaming large parts of Asia. The desperate and deadly situation faced by the many thousands of Tamil civilians trapped in the war zone will become a serious international issue.
These developments do not bode well for the GoSL or the Sinhalese, though Sinhala nationalist groups and the GoSL will try to put a positive spin on the situation. Almost all Sinhala nationalist groups seem to see this phenomenon as of a transient nature, which they believe would go away when the ‘massive’ infrastructure development programs for the north and east are jump started.
Regardless of the reconstruction work which is said to have commenced already, delivery of security and stability to the people of all ethnic communities living in the East remains to be fulfilled. A simple question could be posed here. How could the capitalist ruling elites of the island, who have never been able to engender and sustain such development in the South of the country, be expected to undertake such a development in the North and East of the island?
This brings us to the question of where to from here.
Many serious economic think tanks point to the fact that Sri Lanka is facing a dire economic situation, a fact that the GoSL and many Sinhala extreme nationalist groups continue to glibly dismiss. However, reality seems to be seeping in, at least among some government ministers who imply that an extreme balance of payment crisis exists. This is evident from the willingness of the GoSL to go for a ‘stand-by’ arrangement with the International Monetary Fund.
The current fiscal crisis has been engendered by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka issuing treasury bills worth Rs. 200 billion since September while the country’s foreign reserves were depleting. This situation will be exacerbated greatly when the current global financial crisis starts to bite. I leave this issue to economists to ascertain whether we will soon be following Zimbabwe and Sudan in economic and political terms.
Even if the expectations of the GoSL, SLSF and Sinhala extreme nationalist groups of a manageable low intensity guerilla warfare are achieved, the Sri Lankan people would expect the current high costs of essential commodities to reduce, more employment opportunities to be generated, the provision of better health facilities and other things.
The Tamils, specifically, would demand the GoSL to implement whatever current constitutional provisions that exist so that they could communicate, correspond, educate and carry out their day to day activities in their mother tongue. Furthermore, they would expect the GoSL to devolve power so that they could attend to their developmental activities in coordination with the GoSL. Given the GoSL’s track record and that extreme Sinhala nationalist forces have already commenced a campaign to give nothing to the Tamil people, this might not materialize.
Another aspect to consider would be the stance of those who benefitted from the war situation in terms of material, financial and social privileges. Some of these elements may create conditions to continue the war in other forms. The war has engendered a force of about 300,000 including SLSF and its auxiliaries. Support industries such as provision of human resources, commodities and services to the SLSF and its auxiliaries would not welcome a peaceful resolution to the conflict either.
Adding to this volatile mix, a village economy dependent on wages, salaries, incomes and compensations received by the participation, death and destruction of their folks in the war effort needs to be reconstituted. Given the current economic crisis, the parlous state of the economy and the greed and corruption of the elite, this task will become an impossible juggling act as there would be no war and the bogey of the LTTE to distract the masses.
My firm view is that the way forward lies in the paradigm change Sri Lanka needs to go though, which is alien to its current political traditions. Firstly the equitable distribution of the fruits of economic development and participatory democracy are essential for the society to progress, especially, when the majority of people are surviving from one meal to the other.
Internationally, as demonstrated these days in London during the G20 summit, there is a widespread demand for a refashioning of the world economic order, an end to the unconscionable arrogance of the wheelers and dealers and a call for governments to be more accountable for the welfare of its people. Sri Lanka needs to understand this reality and act accordingly.
Secondly, while recognizing the specific problems facing the Tamil community, the injustices faced by the Sinhalese, and Muslims due to the conflict and challenges they all face due to capitalist globalisation also need to be recognised and addressed.
Whoever values humanity, peace, democracy, freedom and liberty needs to rise up and show that they oppose the current repressive political culture bequeathed to us by both the state and the LTTE.
The Sinhala and Tamil expatriates that helped perpetuate the conflict could now make a positive contribution to its resolution by engaging in dialogue within and outside their community. I believe that there is a need for a political movement that could unite working people on the basis of a democratic socialist policy platform that would reject special privileges for any community and discard all forms of chauvinism.
Even if the Government and the Sri Lankan Armed Forces manage to significantly weaken, defeat, or eliminate the LTTE militarily, a political solution is required. People who value democracy, equality and equity needs to pressure the Sri Lankan state to take immediate action towards a meaningful and just power sharing arrangement. That is the only way to ensure security and the dignity of the peoples of Sri Lanka.
If peaceful coexistence through power sharing is not achievable, the only other solution that would be available will be secession.
This submission is in response to a question posed by Groundviews posed here that asked readers to opine on a war ‘over in 3 weeks’ and a ‘post-LTTE’ Sri Lanka. Please visit this original post to read a rich spectrum of opinion and commentary on the nature of post-war Sri Lanka.
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i have read the article.
i’m intrigued by the counter that says, ‘x have read the article so far.’ i’m not sure its accurate at all. it updates each time i hit my reload button, so it appears that the counter can not distinguish between new IPs and constant reiteration.
perhaps this should be fixed?
@Pradeep, I am glad you have read the article, though characteristically your intrigue is piqued less by the its contents and by something quite peripheral, the counter.
However, rest assured, Google Analytics and Reinvigorate.net work behind the site and operate independently of the WordPress counter plugin. Both gives us more accurate readings of pageviews, like for instance that 3,618 readers came to the site yesterday alone, up from an average of around 1,400 to 1,500 a day.
Now that the matter of the counter is hopefully laid to rest, perhaps you can now comment on the substantive contents of this article and also send in your thoughts on the vital question that gave rise to it? See http://www.groundviews.org/2009/03/31/your-opinion-on-a-war-over-in-3-weeks-and-a-post-ltte-sri-lanka/
groundviews: Characteristically? How do you figure? That puzzles me.
I’m seriously interested in the reach of ‘Sri Lankan’ blogsphere, since I’ve written an academic article about. I’m surprised at your numbers; perhaps google is counting repeat hits from people who keep checking back for comments, not understanding that they can pull an RSS feed for that, off the site. Or bot crawlers.
Its difficult to say, but http://www.groundviews.org‘s alexa.com rank (417,412) as of now doesn’t support such number, I don’t think. alexa.com also estimates that one visitor spends 2.4 mins on the site, averaged over the last a three month, and 0.7 mins or 42 secs, averaged over the last 7 days. So they seem to be quick clicks, not allowing enough time for a visitor to read an article, making me think again, that even alxea is recounting authors checking back.
If 100 or 1000 people read groundviews regularly, that’s great — I’m just trying to work it out. Thanks.
@Pradeep Google does not count repeat hits. Alexa is about as accurate with web statistics as the Sri Lankan Govt and LTTE are with their IDP statistics.
GV’s daily pageviews can be accessed here. Monthly traffic as a graph here. Monthly traffic as numbers here.
reinvigorate.net which you use is in beta; alexa has been around for a long time, and its widely used. its numbers seem right, given other statistics it generates. unless you can link me to a serious, referred publication that supports your dismissal of alexa.com, i find your claim unpersuasive.
@Pradeep Oh dear. A little knowledge can be a very dangerous thing.
Reinvigorate has been around for over 5 years. The beta registration is for the new site functionalities showcased on their homepage, which is currently not even available for registered users. And if you are going to use ‘beta’ as an indication of a site’s embryonic status, I suppose Gmail is also a platform you can’t really trust or use, given that it has been in beta for 5 years?
Here’s then another unpersuasive claim because it is not a ‘serious, referred publication’ based metric. GV is on the top 5 of blogs in Sri Lanka aggregated on Kottu in two years worth of data logging. See http://indi.ca/2009/02/top-100-kottu-clicks-ever/
I have absolutely interest to link you to anything more serious than stats that are recognised as more reliable than Alexa for a simple reason that eludes your amateurish approach to web metrics. Reinvigorate (and Google Analytics) embeds tracking code inside every page on a website to generate metrics. Go to any webpage on Groundviews and see for yourself, if you can comprehend HTML.
Alexa does not embed tracking code (and cannot, since it can’t change code on websites remotely) and generates stats through other means that are far less accurate. Alexa works for sites like, in Sri Lanka, Daily Mirror and even Lanka E News, where traffic ranges in the millions per day, which is large enough traffic for Alexa to create guesstimates which can be used for dinner time conversation, but not rigorous academic research. I’ll give you this though – web metrics are jealously guarded and few sites will be open to handing them to outsiders in the manner I have just done above.
I would encourage you to first learn the basics of the web before undertaking research. Email me if you are serious about educating yourself. Else, you just look silly, which of course is both your prerogative and as we know from experience, your penchant to boot.
i’m quite taken aback by your tone!
thank you for your time.
Many thanks in return for your engagement and interest. Would love to read your ‘academic’ research into the reach of the SL blogosphere and trust this output does not compete, or is confused with your excellent fiction.
Lionel Bopage,
Your conclusion in bold print,
“If peaceful coexistence through power sharing is not achievable, the only other solution that would be available will be secession.”
is similar to that of US Congressman and member of the Committee on International Relations, Brad Sherman in a letter to Madeline Albright, Clinton Administration’s Secretary of State. On September 2000. He wrote,
“….The United States has an opportunity make Sri Lanka a model and help it to evolve, by negotiating, two autonomous democratic political structures within a system acceptable to both parties, where ethnic communities can coexist peacefully on the Island. The US should be firm in its message to the government and the opposition, that if negotiations are not forthcoming immediately, they should be prepared to conduct a referendum of the Tamil people in Sri Lanka.”
(http://www.tamilnation.org/intframe/us/00bradsherman.htm)
Though it is now fashionable to talk of “Post-War” and “Post-Conflict”, especially by Sri Lanka, some International allies of SL and supporters of the Rajapakse administration and its opposition. Such Manthirams are at best mystic assumptions that soothes the populace and gives them the anticipatory pleasure of economic resuscitation with loans and aid in the guise of rehabilitation, reconstruction and development. I think most people know what happens to such funds.
I think the “anticipatory pleasure” is of the continued and complete crushing of the Tiger military machine in the Wanni strip…especially now that the Charles Anthony brigade is beheaded.
Once the strip is liberated, it will be post-something, and “post-war” seems as good as any other description though one is open to suggestion.
“People who value democracy, equality and equity needs to pressure the Sri Lankan state to take immediate action towards a meaningful and just power sharing arrangement. That is the only way to ensure security and the dignity of the peoples of Sri Lanka.
If peaceful coexistence through power sharing is not achievable, the only other solution that would be available will be secession.”
There is a vast difference in the policy of the ORIGINAL JVP to which the author belongs and the policy of the present JVP.
A new concept on “towards a meaningful and just power-sharing arrangement” is given below for the comments of everyone including that of the Author and Mr.Dayan Jayatilake, who seems to be acting as the spokesman for the ruling elite.
The concept outlined is a very great deviation from normal thinking and might well fit in with the arguments placed by the Author.
Many, including Mr.Dayan Jayatilake, who call themselves as ‘moderates’ are not willing to consider this concept which gives a certain degree of ‘power’ with ‘responsibility’ to everyone including the poor and voiceless silent majority.
Now, one word, for those who are actually and sincerely interested in fostering a united country by supporting “devolution” as a means to achieve sustainable peace, please avoid thinking in terms of “devolution” and instead please try to think in terms of “sharing” of powers, rights, duties and responsibilities that cannot be taken back at any time by any government or individual by any method.
The best political solution would be to DILUTE the powers of all elected representatives by separating the powers of Parliament and empowering different sets of people’s representatives to administer the different sets of separated powers. It has to be devolution HORIZONTALLY where every set of representatives would be equal and NOT VERTICALLY where one set of representatives would be above the other which is the normal practice in this power-hungry world. It is because of “devolution” being done “vertically” we have all the trouble in the power-hungry world. So for sustainable peace it should not be “devolution” but “dilution of powers” or “sharing of powers” in such a way that no one – other than the common people – is superior. This system would eradicate injustice, discrimination, bribery and corruption – the four pillars of an evil society – and establish the “Rule of Law” and “Rule by ALL” for sustainable peace, tranquility and prosperity and a pleasant living with dignity and respect for all inhabitants in the country. Everyone must have “equal” powers, rights and most importantly duties and responsibilities.
A detailed version of the concept, which is quite long is available for discussion by interested individuals with an aim to change the hearts not just a change of mind of the citizens of this country with the aim of preserving a UNITARY form of Government with every section of people from every part of the country PARTICIPATING in the GOVERNANCE OF THE COUNTRY in a practical way. In a way it may be termed “participatory democracy”. In this system the country is NOT DIVIDED but the “powers of governance’ of the Parliament is separated.
As a person with a great passion for peace and good governance, a new concept of a truly democratic system of governance with transparency has been devised that would not only contribute towards a lasting and positive peace in this country but also towards the much needed real progressive development of the entire country through good governance. This new concept is people-friendly and development oriented – the need of the day to this country as well as to all developing countries – the so-called Third World countries that intent to tap the doors of the First World
This alternative democratic system provides for the continuous participation of the people and that too in very large numbers, by expanding the present one segment parliament into a seven segment parliament functioning through a set of ‘councils’ at six different levels – as different links of a chain – sharing the different and distinct functions of the present parliament.
The members to these councils would be elected on the UN principle of one member for one country or as in the US electing two members per state irrespective of its size or population. In this new system it is, ‘an equal number of members from similar administrative areas to the same or similar council’ to provide an opportunity for representation of the people on the basis of gender, age group, trade, political ideologies and ethnicity – in the true spirit of democracy.
This new concept of representation is a refined and practical form of true democracy – true to the correct meaning of the word.
The basic salient features of the suggestions are:
1. The expansion of the present parliament of one chamber to one of seven chambers through a set of councils at six different administrative levels each with a different set of members elected from different defined and distinct areas of administration
2. Each of these Groups (Councils) would deal with one or more distinct and defined functions of the present parliament but are connected to achieve the desired aim in operation as a distinct and different links of a chain.
3. The 3rd Group (known as Regional Council) would, in addition to other functions, act as the 2nd chamber found in most countries that have a two-chamber parliament.
4. The members to these chambers (councils) would be elected on the accepted UN principle of one member for one country irrespective of the size or population of the country (administrative area). In this proposal it is an equal number of members from similar administrative areas to the same or similar chamber (council) so to provide an opportunity for representation on the basis of gender, age, trade, political ideologies and ethnicity – in the spirit of true democracy..
People must be made to realize that the installation of a truly democratic system of good governance with transparency would strengthen the economy, preserve nature and discourage fraud and mismanagement and thus benefit everybody and the whole country.
It is accepted that an ideal state of good governance cannot be achieved because there is no perfect world but to achieve an adequate level of good governance we must aim for the ideal situation. \\
This alternative democratic system provides for the continuous participation of the people through a set of ‘councils’ at six different levels – as different links of a chain – sharing the different functions of the present parliament on area basis. That is, the present parliament is expanded to accommodate seven chambers, of which the 1st and 2nd Groups have one unit each at National Level, 4th and 6th Groups have thousands of units at Village level, the 7th Group has 325 units at Divisional Level, the 5th has 25 units at District Level and the 3rd Group known as Regional Council has four units. These four units would also act like the upper chambers functioning in most countries.
The members to all these councils would be elected on the UN principle of one member for one country irrespective of its size or population. In this new system it is ‘an equal number of members from similar administrative areas to the same or similar council’ to provide an opportunity for representation of the people on the basis of gender, age group, trade, political ideologies and ethnicity – in the true spirit of democracy – with the expectation that the elected representatives would serve the people with devotion, thus ensuring the much needed peace, prosperity and happiness.
This new concept of democracy is a great deviation from the prevailing and accepted form of democracy that is in practice. Though it is difficult to change old habits, people could be persuaded to see the benefits of the new system through proper awareness programs conducted effectively and efficiently since a wide consensus of opinion is necessary to give the final touches to the envisaged new concept of a truly democratic parliament. This new concept does not encourage dictatorial attitudes of any single or group of persons, but is people-friendly and development oriented, which is the need of the day to this country as well as to all developing countries – the so-called Third world countries that intent to tap the doors of the First world.
Dayan,
An imperial power cannot be a liberating power. The South of SL rules over NE as an imperial power. So do not talk of liberating the Tamils. That is nonsense. What the state is doing is Tamil genocide.
Capturing a series of towns cannot be the end of the war. The military comes out with such sweet stories to boost up the ego of the Sinhalese.
Wait to see if dust will ever settle down on this unwinnable war. Most sensible persons disagree with your one sided argument on this matter..
Sarwan, how on earth can a poor developing country of the Third world be an “imperial” power?
No serious international analyst calls this war unwinnable. They only point out that though the war is about to be won by the Sri Lankn state, the underlying conflict/crisis/issue remains.
It is NOT a surprise to see Mr.Dayan Jayatilleka not noticing my post giving a brief detail of a solution. Had it been accepted or at least given a consideration by the “ruling elite” in “pre-war” era we would not have had the need to think of “post-war” as called by many.
Even now it is not late because i is a system of the nature suggested that can bring in good governance for sustainable peace and a pleasant life to all the inhabitants. As would be seen there WILL NOT be any “oppressors” and there will not be any “ruling elite”.
It is also not a surprise to see an earstwhile comrade of Comrade Padmanabah to seek an opportunity to crush the killers of Comrade Padmanabah, BUT it is a great surprise to see a one-time leftist who was campaigning for “equality” of all citizens of this country now propagating otherwise.
I sincerely believe that something very much similar to my suggestions has to be the ultimate solution if we do not want any “oppressors” or “ruling elite” and see that the country is governed by the people for the sake of the people and the “rulers’ come out of the people.
If one reads the whole suggestions with an unbiased mind, they will certainly appreciate it and would support it fully provided they are not persons who want to “rule over others”.
If these suggestions are accepted and implemented sincerely we would be having one MP for nearly every hundred and fifty voters. These MP’s would be volunteers to “serve the people in earnest” and would be easily accessible by the people and would not be seeking payments and perks for their “services” to the people.
Sincerely hope that Mr.Dayan Jayatilleka would lead others in commenting on the suggestions.