Comments on: Is Sri Lanka China’s Georgia?

By: Sajitha

Sajitha — Sun, 07 Nov 2010 13:29:08 +0000

India should really careful about USA.They can do anything to ensure their power.Remember they used atomic bombs to win world war two what is most cruel crime in human history(and they still proud about it).If there will be a world war three USA will be the first to use nuclear weapons.Sri Lanka should continue their non-aligned policy.

By: Sajitha

Sajitha — Sun, 07 Nov 2010 13:12:02 +0000

If USA or UK help any country there is a ugly condition in there mind.But china,Russia and Iran never get there hands into other countries internal matters .So there is no matter if Sri Lanka seek their help.India always watching Sri Lankas actions closely but they have right to do that as their neighbor.Sri Lanka always respects their friends but not for imperialists like USA and UK.

By: xia chu

xia chu — Fri, 10 Sep 2010 11:05:14 +0000

Srilanka needs to patch up with the tamils.China will not help India is a better bet

By: Sam

Sam — Mon, 18 May 2009 07:10:27 +0000

I see people are dreaming on a US-india intervention. If you really believe these guys can do things together, the decades old civil war would have ended long time ago. In the mean time, thousands people have died, but may I ask the people here that who cares. OK, if nobody cares, let’s play a game. Now, with China’s help, the tamil is quashed. If this is a playoff game, China won game 1, got the home court advangtage. Let’s see if the US-India can regroup and actually do something, at least make it a close one. Keep all your fingers crossed, it may stay that way for a long long time.

By: Manju

Manju — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 19:18:45 +0000

Sri Lanka must have free hand to sort its own problems out. When it comes to LTTE, it must have the power and rights to destroy LTTE without any concer of human rights. LTTE does not protect human rights, then SL should not care about it, even if the theory says. All those theories come form west, not form asia. In a trouble time, SL must take bold step to eliminate LTTE. If it does not it would be fail state. This is what west expecting for.

Sri Lanka lost the seat in the human right council. It should be a shame. Even US, England, the breachers of human rights in way of iraq war may be still there. If they are there you can understand which kind of countries and the people are behind the curtain those control the system.

china is our neighbour. Why should not we happy if our neighbour prosper. Sri Lankan can trust more thana than indian.

SL should not worry about western isolation. We have now powerful neighbours. They mean by isolation the fact that SL does not get foreign technology .. But china and other friends are very much advanced in technology. We can get it. We must also build our own technology base.

By: Ajith

Ajith — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 14:39:32 +0000

Ok first of all, US does not give a damn about Sri Lanka – unless we discover vast amounts of oil resources which I highly doubt. Even then believe me India will jump before US can mobilise troops. Don’t you remember how excited India got when they heard about potential oil sites off the coast of Sri Lanka? They were salivating..
Lover of Serendipity, if you think we should side our selves with US as opposed to China or Iran then think twice. Not with the current administration anyway or with MacCain/Paulin (what a joke!). Don’t even get me started on US dignity. Bush lost it all and MacCain can only run around naked!
I can only think of a world war situation where Sri Lanka will be occupied or leased for bases like during the last world wars when allies set camp. Other than that World super powers got other things to worry about.

By: Sinthamani

Sinthamani — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 15:09:09 +0000

While the writer provides an enlightening analysis of the changing world order, and poses the likelihood of US-India nexus intervening in Sri Lanka should the war extends into 2009 (objectively analysed the war will extend), he has not contrasted the differences between internal conditions that led to failure in the 1987 IPKF intervention, and the conditions likely to prevail in the future that will prompt another intervention. DJ’s contention of Sri Lanka successfully withstood the earlier intervention, however, does not hold water in analysing future prospects of similar intervention, as the IPKF failure was mainly due to strange coincidence of circumstances where arch-enemies joined hands to make the Indian intervention unviable. Sri Lanka, measured in any metric, is taking a trajectory downhill, in HR aspects, governance, break-down of democratic institutions etc., lawlessness, suppression of press freedom etc., so that a future intervention is entirely plausible, provided the interventionists do not provide a space for the GoSL-LTTE nexus again.

By: wijayapala

wijayapala — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 04:11:16 +0000

A lot of geopolitics in this article, but little relevance to SL. If you take a closer look at this article, ***there is only one paragraph in this entire piece that discusses Sri Lanka.*** It would’ve been nice if the author at least had even a little bit to say about those Indian technicians who were wounded by the recent TAF attack.

It is evident that US and India are moving together due to 1) war on Islamist terrorism and 2) China. But it is quite a separate thing to argue that either country will want to heavily engage in SL. Lover of Serendipity is quite correct about “delusions of grandeur” in this article. The author makes an extremely vague reference to a joint platform based on human rights and counter-terrorism, apparently not grasping the vast contradictions/conflicts of interests between the two. After the IPKF experience, the Indians will not get involved in a situation where its interests are not clearly defined.

The Indians know that despite their loathing of the LTTE, they don’t have the resources or political will to militarily support SL as China can, and therefore Chinese influence will only increase as this war continues. Barring some senile ex-RAW fossils who want to reconciliate with the killers of their Prime Minister, most Indians understand that their interests thus lie in a quicker defeat of the LTTE. With the LTTE gone, the Indians can engage with alternative Tamil leaders who will eventually emerge to fill the void.

My advice to the author is to take some time away from Geostrategy 101 towards specifically examining current Indo-Lanka relations and where they’re going.

By: Lover of Serendipity

Lover of Serendipity — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 13:32:49 +0000

Does SL have delusions of granduer or what? The US has zero interests in intervening our SL affairs. The question SL shld ask, is do we want to associate with countries like China and Iran? All around the world people see the iron-fisted way they deal with THEIR OWN PEOPLE. Sure, in the short term we get some benefits but are we selling out our souls in the long term? Shldn’t we strive for dignity and integrity over a material benefit of an infrastructure project, etc? As for me, I’d rather eat bread crumbs falling to the ground then dine on steak at the table with these rogue nations. Think, listen, and discern- for the long term…

By: De silva

De silva — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 11:28:44 +0000

do you know, Srilanka,China, Iran,Pakistan,Burma,Afthgan never respect human but respects politicians who can kill the minorities. China is playing a dirty game
against india with help of srilanka this will be the on of srilankan dirty ploitics.
one day UN should send their Troops to protect the Tamils.

By: Balanz

Balanz — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 07:44:23 +0000

I would have titled the article ‘ Is Sri Lanka India’s Georgia?, the difference being that Russia took decisive action to safeguard it’s interests.

By: Ithayachandran

Ithayachandran — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 12:15:43 +0000

Well presented. Three line approach becomes two now. If mahinda leans towards china , then there will be a dramatic change in the SL . Until then,there is no direct intervention from us-india at all. . Until mahinda regime capture the north, they will keep on playing with US-INDIA and CHINA. Once they achieve their goal , then they will join hand with China. Because China never advice SL govn. on human rights issue or devolution proposals.

By: CHINTHANA MAHINDA

CHINTHANA MAHINDA — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 11:03:46 +0000

Is Lanka China’s Georgia?
I believe that “Hitler’s Germany” then is similar to “Mahinda’s Sri Lanka” today!

Cellular services were suspended sometime back in Jaffna by the SLA.
Today Tamil telephone users at all Communication Centers in Jaffna have to complete a form issued by SLA before they take foreign calls.
Hitler forced the Jews to wear the ‘Star of David’ on their arms to identify them as Jews!

Now the GOSL has forced Tamil residents in Jaffna to carry a special document of identification issued by security forces, in addition to the national identity card provided by the Emigration and Immigration Department.

A few days back, Tamils in Colombo had to line up to register – a policy with extremely nasty Hitlerian overtones. What next? Concentration camps?

The chauvinist grand-standing of this Sri Lankan government, like others in the past, only manages to hoodwink the majority (aka ‘Buddhimath Janathaawa).

If power is not divided amongst the minorities, the divisions will continue and the enmity will also continue for another generation or more!

I think it was Voltaire who said, “As long as people believe in absurdities, they will continue to commit atrocities.” And this just what has been happening during the past 60 odd years in Sri Lanka!

By: Boslogan

Boslogan — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 02:53:13 +0000

An extremely well written thesis. Chitiral has meticulously researched all aspects and the conclusions are derived well.

Unfortunately, for the 3 millions Tamils in Srilanka, time is not on their side. If a Sinhalese like Dayan Jayatileke, who is considered moderate Sinhala, take offense to Chitiral’s paper, then there is no rational to expect the Sinhalese to provide maximum devolution within a “unitary” (sic) Srilankan state.

The only portion that Chitiral has not covered adequately well is the global impact of the onslaught and abuse against the minority Tamils.

Tamil Nadu’s leadership is senile and as such lacks voice and action. Were this to change, then the dynamics will shift and there will be turbulance both in Tamil Nadu and in Delhi.

As Chitiral points out, in 6 months or in 12 months, there will be fresh initiatives, and Indian foreign policy may take an about turn for the better in Srilanka.

By: Greg

Greg — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 02:51:57 +0000

Well I agree some what to what the writer says. However I feel that he has left out the influence of Iran. What will the US think of Iran playing an active role in Sri Lanka? However one other point is the writer thinks that America will only intervene on humanitarian grounds. The democrats have already signalled they won’t look at all terrorists the same way. The bush paradigm of the war on terror has actually left them with a disadvantage. Will they not support some terrorists to achieve there objectives? I think they will. What’s to say they wont help the LTTE? When the Sri Lankan state gravitates towards China Iran what better way than directly interveing in small island with little economic resources (read oil) than to help the insurgents to topple the government? What’s does the writer think of this angle?

By: Reuban Nathakumar

Reuban Nathakumar — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 00:21:27 +0000

A fairly deep analysis with the author displaying an ability to relate current political and economic movements with other expert observations.

By: kana siva

kana siva — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 00:19:25 +0000

I fully agree with the writer.
Weather US-India intervention is possible or not, their intentions are already becoming clear in their open courtship with the puppet regime in the east. In fact the case for early US-India’s intervention is stronger now, as with the passing of time, it will become impossible for such action as china’s support and involvement in Srilanka increases .
The comments by Dayan Jeyatilleka above is reflective of the ignorance of the Srilankan polity which uses emotions and myths to motivate the Sinhala citizens and will not stand up to reality. Unfortunately it is us, the ordinary people(mainly Tamils), who stand to lose everything, not the politicians and their cronies who pretend to be journalists.

By: dayan jayatilleka

dayan jayatilleka — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 08:51:15 +0000

This superficially sophisticated analysis and scenario has an important piece missing, namely the internal conditions in which external intervention is successful. the writer still has to deal with the massve fact of contemporary sri lankan history: we’ve been there, had that done to us and have got the T shirt. we experienced a huge ( 70,000 troop strong) “humanitarian” intervention in 1987. three years later a battered interventionist went home, suffering a trauma that has still not left it decades later. sri lankan sovereignty was restored and the lankan state is still standing. the simple fact is that the combination of the lankan state formation, a historical idenmtity of long duration, an established and functioning democracy, public opinion, a fairly large population, a large motivated army, a militant youth movement, give Sri Lanka a very different profile from those weak states –failed or failing or newly emergent democracies — that are prone to successful intervention. none of this is to say that there will not be a US-India engagement on Sri Lanka in the foreseeable future, and that it will not be consequential, but that it will not take the apocalyptic form of intervention. does the writer know how old — or young– georgia is as a state, and how episodic its history has been as an independent entity? and how on earth can the georgian case be abstracted from the historical experience that forms its backdrop, i.e. the collapse of the USSR? A-historical analysis is as unhelpful as antiquarian historicism.